Weekly Credit Update – 10 March, 2015
Weekly Credit Update 10 March 2015 Investment Research www.danskebank.com/CI Analyst Ola Heldal +47 85408433 olh@danskebank.com Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report Contents - Market news - Trade ideas - Company news - Chart pack - List of official and shadow ratings and recommendations 2 What’s on our mind - General credit market news • The strong market tone continued last week. The iTraxx Main and cross-over tightened by 2bp and 15bp, respectively. • US non-farm payrolls were solid on Friday. This pushed US 10-year treasury yields 13bp wider and the US dollar hit a 11-year high. • The FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose to its highest close since 2007, as ”peripheral” government yields grinded tighter in conjunction with the slide in the EUR, and European investors re-positioned for the commencement of the ECB’s bond purchases. • The ECB started its EUR60bn per month asset purchase programme yesterday, however it does not include corporate bonds for now. • In the Nordic region, several mandates were awarded and some new issues launched, including Storebrand Liv T2, NC-5 in NOK which priced at 3M NIBOR+305bps, and Vattenfall, which was roadshowing a new hybrid. Sources: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets for both charts 3 Buy SSAB EUR 2019s against SSAB SEK 2019s (published 16 Feb) EUR bonds - High Yield Indicative ASW offer (bps) • From a credit perspective, SSAB showed steady progress in its Q4 results despite a slight underperformance versus consensus earnings. Cash flow was not enough to reduce the overall net debt but credit metrics still managed to improve due to a larger LTM adjusted EBITDA. • Credit metrics are, in our view, a little on the weak side for the group’s ‘BB-’ rating but S&P has built in an improvement in its basecase scenario and, as such, the rating should not be in danger given the strong momentum SSAB is currently seeing. • We expect 2015 to be positive from a credit point of view with improved earnings and further improvements in credit metrics. • The SEK bond trades at bid 97.26 (ASW EUR6m 322bp) and the EUR bond at ask 100.75 (ASW EUR6m 341bp). • The trade provides a pick-up of 19bps with 1.5 months extension, which looks attractive, in our view. 400 Industrials: BB+ Industrials: BB 350 SSABAS EUR '19 (BB-/NR) Industrials: BBSSABAS SEK '19 (BB-/NR) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 4 Recent trade ideas Type Trade Currency trade Switch from SSABs SEK '19 to SSABs EUR '19 Outright CITCON '3.75 Outright EGASDK '20 Sector spread Switch from NDA AT1 to SEB AT1 Curve spread Switch from SECUSS '17 to SECUSS '21 Outright SASSS '17 Curve spread Switch from ATCOA '19 to ATCOA '23 Outright VLVY' 17 or VLVY'19 Idea SSAB's EUR bonds look cheap compared to the SEK bonds and provide a pick-up of some 19bp with an extension of 1.5 months. Opened 17-02-2015 Start spread 19 We believe that CITCON'3.75s trade at an attractive Opened level relative to the 'BBB' curve. Start spread 10-02-2015 EGASDK '20s, which we see as 'B', indicatively trade way too cheap relative to the industrial 'B' curve. Opened 104 02-02-2015 Start spread 683 We have an ‘Overweight’ rating on SEB and an Opened ‘Underweight’ rating on Nordea and don’t believe a 14bp pick-up for a four-year maturity extension is Start spread worthwhile. The Securitas 2021 bond trades wider than the BBB- Opened curve while the Securitas 2017 bond trades at the BBB+ curve. We recommend buying the Securitas 2021 vs the Securitas 2017. Pick up 57bp (z-spread) Start spread for a 4-year maturity extension. 26-01-2015 We believe the SAS 2017 offers attractive absolute value – supported by adequate liquidity. Opened -8 23-01-2015 81 18-12-2014 Start spread 807 The Atlas Copco 2019s trade tighter than the Opened average ‘A+’ rated EUR corporate. Go out the curve Start spread and buy the 23s. We see the VLVY cash curve as attractively valued Opened and an (uncertain) downgrade is more than priced into Start spread spreads. 18-12-2014 16 27-11-2014 72 See the end of this presentation for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations Source: Danske Bank Markets 5 Company news from the past week Name Ahlstrom Volvo Sandvik News Ahlstrom announced that it has sold part of its stake in Munksjö for a capital gain of about EUR6m. The stake was a legacy from when the group divested its label-making business to Munksjö. The news is slightly credit positive as uncertain and more volatile share value is converted to more certain and stable cash value. We have not counted share values in our ratio calculations i.e. the cash received from the proceeds should improve adj. ratios slightly unless Ahlstrom decides to distribute proceeds to shareholders. Volvo (Marketweight) announced it would sell some of its shares in Eicher Motors Limited (EML). The disposal will have no impact on either the ownership or control of the Indian truck and bus manufacturer, VE Commercial Vehicles (VECV), the JV between Volvo Group and Eicher. VECV is currently the third largest manufacturer of commercial vehicles in the Indian market. The cash gain of SEK2.4bn from the sale is positive from a credit perspective but is unlikely to move Volvo’s leverage down to any significant degree. In our view, the main problem with Volvo continues to be its profitability, and deleveraging will not solve this issue. Sandvik (Marketweight): As previously communicated in 2013, Sandvik’s supply chain is to be optimised, reducing the number of production units from 150 to about 125 over three to four years. The first phase has progressed according to plan and was initiated in the fourth quarter of 2013, involving 11 unit closures (of which five had been implemented at year-end 2014). Sandvik is now launching the second phase comprising a total of 10 unit closures, predominantly in Europe. In addition, Sandvik will implement further measures to adjust the cost base to current demand as well as make a project write-down related to Mining Systems. The total group savings are estimated at approximately SEK1.1 billion on a yearly run rate by the end of 2016. Nonrecurring charges associated with the initiatives, totaling about SEK1.9 billion, will impact Q1 15. Approximately SEK500m of these savings have already been achieved and the second phase is set to bring a further SEK600m, which is a fairly small amount considering the size of Sandvik. Overall, neutral to slightly positive news from a credit perspective in our view. We maintain our Marketweight rating on the name. Source: Danske Bank Markets Implication Credit positive Credit positive Credit positive 6 Company news from the past week Name News SAS AB (rated B-/S) reported Q1 15 figures in line with expectations (taking into account the significant volatility in the airline industry) but weaker than Q1 14. Reported EBITDA was negative SEK375m vs SEK461m in Q1 14 (however Q1 14 was positively impacted by a nonrecurring gain of SEK1.044m related to payroll expenses - so underlying EBITDA improved slightly y/y. Adjusted for one-offs, the pretax loss was SEK0.8bn vs SEK-1.2bn in Q1 14. Net debt rose to SEK2.1bn and reported net debt to LTM EBITDA was 2.8x (this excludes the NPV of op. leasing). Importantly, SAS continues to have a solid cash position with cash and cash equivalents of SEK7.1bn at end Q1 15. Committed undrawn facilities were SEK2.8bn. Shortterm financial debt was SEK3.8bn. The strike in late February cost SAS a total of SEK50m. All SAS in all, pretty much as we expected - the large cash position is comforting but earnings are still unsatisfying to us despite Q1 always being a difficult quarter. We continue to be positive on the SAS 2017s but after strong performance in recent months, upside is capped in our view. For the full year, SAS still expects to be able to make a pre-tax profit. This will be supported by lower fuel costs. SAS has now hedged 75% of expected fuel consumption for the next 12 months. (SAS has hedged 68% of its expected USD deficit on a 12-month basis). Based on current hedge levels, the expected group fuel cost for SAS in the 2015 financial year is SEK8.0-8.2bn vs SEK8.8bn in FY 14 (some of the positive impact from the decline in jet fuel is mitigated by the weakening SEK vs USD). We expect a further positive effect in 2016. Outokumpu (DBM:'b'): The EU is set to impose antidumping duties on imports of stainless steel cold rolled sheet from China and Taiwan later this month, which should be very good for Outokumpu stainless steel prices in Europe and hence also good for Outokumpu Norwegian (DBM shadow rating: BB-/B+) cancelled a significant part of its flights on Friday (Sweden, Denmark and Norway) due to a pilot strike. Based on experience from a largely grounded fleet following the Icelandic ash cloud, we guesstimate the daily cost to be some NOK20-30m. As of end 2014, NAS had a cash position of NOK2.0bn with short-term debt of NOK3.1bn. However, the majority of the short-term debt (according to Norwegian) is in fact related to aircraft financing. This part of the short-term debt will be funded by the Ex-Im bank and therefore is de-facto long-term financing/debt. Nevertheless, due to accounting issues NAS has to present it as short-term debt until aircrafts are delivered. This mitigates the short-term Norwegian liquidity pressure - although a prolonged strike would definitely be a serious matter. At the same time it should be noted that NOK8.8bn of the NOK10.2bn long-term financing is aircraft financing - this is mainly done through the US import-export bank (state-guaranteed) and is long term in nature. We believe NAS has the ability to free up capital by doing sale and lease backs in order to mitigate the short-term liquidity pressure in 2015. Furthermore, we believe that NAS will continue to honour the bond covenants - again due to its strong asset base and potential Source: Danske Bank Markets sale and leaseback transactions. As a last resort, it could carry out a rights issue. Implication Credit neutral Credit positive Credit negative 7 Selected new issues Date Issuer Coupon CCY Volume Maturity S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM 02-03-2015 Nordea Bank Ab NIBOR3M +310bps NOK 1 250 m Perp / / BBBe 310 05-03-2015 Nordea Bank Ab STIB3M +310bps SEK 2 250 m Perp / / 310 05-03-2015 Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1,625% EUR 1 000 m Mar-35 AA / Aa2 / A+ 05-03-2015 Berkshire Hathaway Inc 0,75% EUR 750 m Perp AA / Aa2 / A+ 05-03-2015 Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1,125% EUR 1 250 m Perp AA / Aa2 / A+ 04-03-2015 Storebrand Livsforsikrin NIBOR3M +305bps NOK 1 000 m BBB / / 27 305 Source: Danske Bank Markets 8 Chart pack: euro spreads and returns Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices IG Total Return, iBoxx indices, 2014-01=100 Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices HY Total Return, Merrill Lynch indices, 2014-01=100 Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 9 Chart pack: relative value iTraxx vs iBoxx EUR CDS Spreads – Nordic Banks Euro vs US CDS indices - IG (Markit) Euro vs US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch) Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 10 Chart pack: general market development European swap and government yields 3M TED spread, US and euro area Euro swap curve spread EUR/USD basis swaps Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 11 Chart pack: fund flows Europe, net sales US, net sales Sweden, net sales Norway, net sales Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 12 Chart pack: macro GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted Purchasing Manager Indices Euro area y/y change in bank lending Euro area lending standards Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 13 Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 5 Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings Company Ahlstrom Oyj Akelius Residential Property Ab Ambu A/S Ap Moeller - Maersk A/S Arla Foods Amba Atlas Copco Ab Avinor As Bank 1 Oslo Akershus As Bank Norwegian As Beerenberg Holdco Ii As Billerudkorsnas Ab Bw Offshore Cargotec Oyj Carlsberg Breweries A/S Cermaq Asa Citycon Oyj Color Group As Com Hem Holding Ab Danfoss A/S Danske Bank A/S Dfds A/S Dlg Finance As Dna Ltd Dnb Bank Asa Dong Energy A/S Dsv A/S Eg Holding Eika Boligkreditt As Eika Gruppen As Electrolux Ab Elenia Oy Elisa Oyj Rating B+ BBBBBBBBB+ Danske Bank Outlook Sr. Unsec Stable Stable BBBStable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable BB Stable BB- Stable BBB B ABBB Moody's Rating Outlook BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable A AA- Stable Stable A2 A1 Stable Stable Baa2 Neg Fitch Rating Outlook Stable BBB+ BBB B BBBBB+ BBB- BBBBBBBB- S&P Rating Outlook BBB Stable Baa2 Stable BBBBB A Stable Stable Neg A3 Stable BBB Stable A Stable B+ Stable Stable Stable A+ BBB+ Stable Stable A1 Baa1 BBB Stable Wr BBB Pos Baa2 Neg Stable BBB+ Stable Stable Stable Stable Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets WD Stable Stable Analyst(s) Recomm. Mads Rosendal Louis Landeman Jakob Magnussen Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHT Mads Rosendal Mads Rosendal UNDERWEIGHT Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHT T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Øyvind Mossige Mads Rosendal Øyvind Mossige Mads Rosendal Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHT Knut-Ivar Bakken Emil Hjalmarsson Niklas Ripa Ola Heldal Jakob Magnussen Niklas Ripa Mads Rosendal Ola Heldal T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHT Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHT Brian Børsting Jakob Magnussen T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHT Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHT Ola Heldal OVERWEIGHT 14 Our coverage and shadow ratings 2 of 5 Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings Danske Bank Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Entra Eiendom As AStable Farstad Shipping Asa BB Neg BBFingrid Oyj Finnair Oyj BB Stable Fortum Oyj Fortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab Fred Olsen Energy Asa BB Stable BBG4S Plc Getinge Ab BB+ Neg Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd BHeimstaden Ab BB Stable BBHemso Fastighets Ab BBB+ Stable BBB Hkscan Oyj BB Stable Hoist Kredit Ab BBStable B+ Husqvarna Ab BBBPos Ikano Bank Ab BBB Stable Investor Ab Iss A/S J Lauritzen A/S B Stable BJernhusen Ab AStable Jyske Bank A/S Kesko Oyj BBB Stable Klaveness Ship Holding As BBStable B+ Loomis Ab BBBStable Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab BBB+ Stable Meda Ab BBStable Metsa Board Oyj Metso Oyj Ncc Ab BBBStable Neste Oil Oyj BBBStable Nokia Oyj Nokian Renkaat Oyj BBB+ Stable Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets S&P Rating Outlook Moody's Rating Outlook Fitch Rating Outlook A+ Stable A1 Stable A+ Stable ABBB+ Neg Stable A2 Neg A- Neg BBB- Stable AABBB- Stable Stable A1 Stable A- Stable Baa1 Neg BB BBB Stable Stable B1 Baa2 Pos Stable BB Pos Ba2 Pos BB Stable Analyst(s) Ola Heldal Øyvind Mossige Jakob Magnussen Brian Børsting Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Sondre Stormyr Brian Børsting Louis Landeman Sondre Stormyr Louis Landeman Emil Hjalmarsson Brian Børsting Gabriel Bergin Emil Hjalmarsson T. Hovard / L. Holm Brian Børsting Brian Børsting Bjørn Kristian Røed Gabriel Bergin T. Hovard / L. Holm Mads Rosendal Bjørn Kristian Røed Brian Børsting Louis Landeman Louis Landeman Mads Rosendal Mads Rosendal Emil Hjalmarsson Jakob Magnussen Ola Heldal Jakob Magnussen Recomm. MARKET WEIGHT UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT OVERWEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT 15 Our coverage and shadow ratings 3 of 5 Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings Company North Atlantic Drilling Ltd Norwegian Air Shuttle Asa Norwegian Property Asa Nykredit Bank A/S Nynas Group Ocean Yield Asa Odfjell Se Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa Olympic Shipping As Orkla Asa Outokumpu Oyj Pohjola Bank Oyj Posten Norge As Postnord Ab Prosafe Se Ramirent Oyj Sampo Oyj Sandnes Sparebank Sandvik Ab Sas Ab Sbab Bank Ab Scania Ab Schibsted Asa Seadrill Ltd Securitas Ab Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab Skanska Ab Skf Ab Sognekraft As Solstad Offshore Asa Spar Nord Bank A/S Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt As Rating BBBBBBB- Danske Bank Outlook Sr. Unsec Neg B+ Stable B+ Stable B+ BB B+ BBB+ B+ BBB+ B Stable ABBB+ BB BB+ Stable Stable Stable Stable BBB+ Stable BBB BB Stable Stable Stable Pos Pos Stable Neg BBB+ Stable BBB BBBBB+ A- Stable Stable Stable Stable Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets S&P Rating Outlook Moody's Rating Outlook Fitch Rating Outlook A+ Neg Baa2U Stable A Stable AA- Neg Aa3 Neg A+ Stable Baa2 Stable B+ BBB B BBB BA A- Neg Stable Neg Stable Wr A2 Stable Neg BBB A+ Stable Neg Wr A1 Neg BBB+ Neg Baa1 Stable BB- BBB B+ Aaa A+ Pos Analyst(s) Sondre Stormyr Brian Børsting Ola Heldal T. Hovard / L. Holm Jakob Magnussen Øyvind Mossige Bjørn Kristian Røed Ola Heldal Øyvind Mossige Ola Heldal Mads Rosendal T. Hovard / L. Holm Ola Heldal Gabriel Bergin Sondre Stormyr Brian Børsting T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Mads Rosendal Brian Børsting T. Hovard / L. Holm Mads Rosendal Ola Heldal Sondre Stormyr Brian Børsting T. Hovard / L. Holm Emil Hjalmarsson Mads Rosendal Jakob Magnussen Øyvind Mossige T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Recomm. MARKET WEIGHT UNDERWEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT OVERWEIGHT UNDERWEIGHT 16 Our coverage and shadow ratings 4 of 5 Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings Company Sparebank 1 Nord Norge Sparebank 1 Smn Sparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa Sponda Oyj St1 Nordic Oy Statkraft Sf Statnett Sf Statoil Asa Steen & Strom As Stena Ab Stockmann Oyj Abp Stolt-Nielsen Ltd Stora Enso Oyj Storebrand Bank Asa Sunnfjord Energi As Suomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca Svenska Handelsbanken Ab Swedavia Ab Swedbank Ab Swedish Match Ab Sydbank A/S Saab Ab Tallink Group As Tdc A/S Teekay Offshore Partners Lp Tele2 Ab Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson Telenor Asa Teliasonera Ab Teollisuuden Voima Oyj Rating BBBBB Danske Bank Outlook Sr. Unsec Moody's Rating Outlook A2 Neg A2 Neg A2 Neg Fitch Rating Outlook A Stable AStable AStable Stable Stable BBB+ Stable B+ BB+ Stable Stable BBB+ BBBABBB Stable Stable Stable Stable A- S&P Rating Outlook AA+ AA- Stable Stable Stable Aaa Wr Aa2 Stable Stable Stable BB Stable B2 Stable BB BBB+ Stable Neg Ba2 Baa2 Stable Neg AAA- Stable Neg Baa1 Aa3 Stable Neg A+ BBB Neg Stable A1 Baa2 Baa1 Wr BBB Neg BBB+ A ABBB Stable Stable Stable Neg BB WD BBB- AA- Stable Neg Stable Neg A+ Pos Baa3 Stable BBB Neg Baa1 A3 A3 Wr Stable Stable Neg BBB+ Stable ABBB Stable Stable Stable BBB+ BB Stable Stable BBBBB Stable Stable Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets BBB+ Analyst(s) Recomm. T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Emil Hjalmarsson Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Ola Heldal Niklas Ripa Mads Rosendal Bjørn Kristian Røed Mads Rosendal T. Hovard / L. Holm Jakob Magnussen T. Hovard / L. Holm Louis Landeman Mads Rosendal T. Hovard / L. Holm Gabriel Bergin T. Hovard / L. Holm Brian Børsting T. Hovard / L. Holm Emil Hjalmarsson Niklas Ripa Ola Heldal Bjørn Kristian Røed Ola Heldal Ola Heldal Ola Heldal Ola Heldal Jakob Magnussen UNDERWEIGHT UNDERWEIGHT UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT OVERWEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKETWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT 17 Our coverage and shadow ratings 5 of 5 Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings Company Thon Holding As Tine Sa Upm-Kymmene Oyj Vasakronan Ab Vattenfall Ab Vestas Wind Systems A/S Victoria Park Ab Volvo Ab Wilh Wilhelmsen Asa Yit Oyj Rating BBB+ BBB+ Danske Bank Outlook Sr. Unsec Stable Stable A- Stable BBBBB- Pos Stable BBBB Stable Neg S&P Rating Outlook Moody's Rating Outlook Fitch Rating Outlook BB+ Stable Ba1 Stable WD A- Stable A3 Stable A- Neg BBB Neg Baa2 Neg BBB Stable B+ Analyst(s) Recomm. Ola Heldal Ola Heldal Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHT Emil Hjalmarsson Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHT Niklas Ripa OVERWEIGHT Louis Landeman Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHT Bjørn Kristian Røed Emil Hjalmarsson Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets 18 Fixed Income Credit Research team Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst Head of Credit Research +45 45 12 85 05 hova@danskebank.com Brian Børsting, Senior Analyst Industrials +45 45 12 85 19 brbr@danskebank.com Ola Heldal, Analyst TMT +47 85 40 84 33 olh@danskebank.com Louis Landeman, Analyst TMT, Industrials +46 8 568 80524 llan@danskebank.com Lars Holm, Senior Analyst Financials +45 45 12 80 41 laho@danskebank.dk Sondre Dale Stormyr, Analyst Offshore Rigs +47 85 40 70 70 sost@danskebank.com Mads Rosendal, Analyst Industrials, Pulp & Paper +46 8 568 80594 madro@danskebank.com Gabriel Bergin, Analyst Strategy, Industrials +46 8 568 80602 gabe@danskebank.com Henrik René Andresen, Analyst Credit Portfolios +45 45 13 33 27 hena@danskebank.com Jakob Magnussen, Senior Analyst Utilities, Energy +45 45 12 85 03 jakja@danskebank.com Niklas Ripa, Senior Analyst High Yield, Industrials +45 45 12 80 47 niri@danskebank.com Øyvind Mossige, Senior Analyst Oil Services +47 85 40 54 91 omss@danskebank.com Knut-Ivar Bakken, Analyst Fish Farming +47 85 40 70 74 knb@danskebank.com Bjørn Kristian Røed, Analyst Shipping +47 85 40 70 72 bred@danskebank.com Emil Hjalmarsson, Analyst Real Estate, Construction +46 8 568 80634 emih@danskebank.com 19 Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). 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