April 8th 2015 CREDICORP CAPITAL RESEARCH Chile: +(562) 2450 1600 Colombia: +(571) 339 4400 Ext. 1505 Peru: +(511) 205 9190 Ext. 36070 Credicorp Capital Research Andean Daily Report V a lua tions P / E CHILE EV / EBITDA P / BV 2 0 15 E 2 0 16 E 2 0 15 E 2 0 16 E LTM Country March inflation comes in under expectations The Central Bank of Chile releases its survey for Financial Traders Chile 18.1x 15.8x 8.9x 8.0x 1.8x Chilean Electric Utilities Output – 1Q 2015 - Higher hydro output and lower fuel prices drive strong decrease in average marginal cost (Full report attached) Colombia 21.8x 17.9x 8.2x 7.4x 1.4x Peru 16.9x 9.2x 8.3x 5.9x 1.3x LATAM Airlines: LAN Express went on strike last night Index Last S&P MILA 40 S&P INDEX Chile Colombia Peru Mex ico Brazil Equities Latam 606 2,076 3,981 1,356 12,878 44,988 53,729 2,603 Fx Rates Last CLP / US$ UF / CLP Peru / US$ Colombia / US$ Brazil / US$ CLP / Euro Euro / US$ 610 24,645 3.10 2,514 3.13 660 1.08 Commodities Last Copper (US$/lb) Gold (US$/oz) Silv er (US$/oz) Brent (US$/bbl) Pulp (US$/MT) WTI (US$/bbl) 276 1,211 16.8 58 865 54 Banmedica announces that tax involved in irregular payments amount to at least CLP 810mn COLOMBIA Exports continued its downward trend in Feb-15 Local oil production reached 1,021 kboepd during March - 2015 PERU Ollanta Humala shows support for Tia Maria Project GDP may grow less than 4% according to the Minister of Economy and Finance IMF: Social policy and educational reforms yield marked results Moody’s, Fitch: New cabinet maintains GDP forecasts at around 4%; economic policy to remain stable and credible going forward Inter-American Development generating jobs Bank: Peru growth to continue Gloria Corporation buys all of Maple Energy assets for USD 108mn D/D % YTD% Local USD Local USD 0.2% 0.2% -4.9% -4.9% -0.2% -0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 3.4% 2.9% 0.4% 1.2% -10.4% -15.0% -0.6% -0.8% -13.0% -16.3% 0.3% -0.1% 4.3% 3.1% 0.0% -0.7% 7.4% -8.7% -0.7% -0.7% -4.6% -4.6% D/D % YTD% -0.3% 0.0% 0.3% -0.8% 0.1% -1.3% -1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 4.0% 5.8% 18.3% -10.0% -10.6% D/D % Local USD 1.7% -0.7% -1.6% 1.3% -1.7% 3.5% Local YTD% USD -2.1% 2.1% 7.7% 3.7% -7.2% 1.3% Credicorp Capital may do or seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 8 to 10. Analyst Certification on Page 8. Additional disclosures on page 10. Chile Economics and Politics March inflation comes in under expectations The INE released the inflation for the month of March, which recorded a monthly rise of 0.6%, lower than the markets (0.9%) and our expectations (0.8%). Monthly inflation was influenced mainly by the rise in education prices (5.1%), due to annual readjustments. With this result, the annual inflation decreased to 4.2% y/y, slightly over the target range (2.0%-4.0%). The Central Bank of Chile releases its survey for Financial Traders Financial traders are forecasting 0.3% m/m inflation for April and a 3.4% y/y for the next 12 months, 0.10 pp higher than the last survey. They do not expect a policy rate movement over the coming months, expecting a level of 3% through April 2016. In terms of foreign exchanged, traders decreased their forecast to CLP 625 by year’s end (635 in the previous survey). Company News Chilean Electric Utilities Output – 1Q 2015 (Full report attached) Higher hydro output and lower fuel prices drive strong decrease in average marginal cost SIC Generation: output increased 1.9% y/y during 1Q15. Coal-fired generation decreased 3.9%, mainly explained by lower dispatch from Bocamina I (now also out, and expected to return in May). LNG generation increased 10.3% y/y, driven by higher dispatch from Gener’s Nueva Renca, which has been leased to Endesa Chile. Hydro generation was up 3.3%, following a better snowmelt season. Average marginal cost reached 134.5 USD/MWh, down 18.5% when compared to 1Q14. SING Generation: output increased 3.6% y/y. Growth was driven by LNG generation (+15% y/y), while coal-fired generation was roughly flat over the period (+1.9% y/y). Diesel output decreased 2.9% y/y. Average marginal cost during the quarter decreased 44.4% y/y, reaching 48.8 USD/MWh. Hydrology: prediction models continue to show a lean towards El Niño phenomenon (wet season in Chile), though the neutral scenario (average rain levels) would also be quite probable. We see 1Q15 generation figures in Chile as positive mainly for E-CL, while neutral for AES Gener, Colbun and Endesa. LATAM Airlines: LAN Express went on strike last night (LATAM AIRLINES: HOLD; T.P.: CLP 7,800) According to a local news source, the workers of LAN Express decided to go on strike last night, following the unsuccessful negotiations held with management, which were even moderated by the government. The strike was approved by 98% of maintenance and auxiliary syndicated workers from the mentioned branch company. LAN Express’ labor union seeks a wage increase of 15%, along with an improvement in the incentives currently used, according to the source. 2 Banmedica announces that tax involved in irregular payments amount to at least CLP 810mn (BANMEDICA: HOLD; T.P.: CLP 1,340) In a material fact released publically, Banmedica announced the impact in taxes due to irregular payments made by the former CEO, Carlos Kubick. According to the company, they detected tax issues regarding income tax and rejected expenses associated with the bills issued through subsidiaries of Banmedica. Regarding the income tax of the executives involved, the company stated that the amount involved was already declared and paid by the executives. On the other hand, the tax amount related to the rejected expenses amounts to CLP 810 mn. This amount has not been paid and the company is awaiting further information from Kubick. If any criminal irregularities are found, the executives could be charged in a criminal prosecution. We believe this issue will not have a relevant financial effect on the company or on our valuation. Colombia Economics and Politics Exports continued its downward trend in Feb-15 According to DANE, exports went down 26.8% y/y in Feb-15, from USD 4,271.4 mn to USD 3,128 mn, amid a sharp decrease, once again, in sales of fuels and products from extractive industries (-36.4% y/y) and manufacturing products (-9.7% y/y), despite a more favorable FX rate. On the other hand, exports of agricultural products, food and beverages continued its positive trend, posting an advance of 6.8% y/y. As observed in the previous months, the contraction of fuels and products from extractive industries was related to the sharp decrease of oil and oil derivatives sales (-45.2% y/y). However, this behavior was caused by the current low oil price level, whose plunge began around Jun-14 and accumulates losses of roughly 46% since then. In fact, the amount of exported barrels significantly increased (+18.2% y/y) in Feb-15, from 20.8 mn barrels to 24.6 mn. Thus, during the first two months of the year, the overall external sales of Colombia cumulate losses of 33.8% y/y, mainly led by the contraction of fuels and products from extractive industries exports (47.3% y/y). Company News Local oil production reached 1,021 kboepd during March - 2015 (ECOPETROL: HOLD; T.P.: COP 1,670 / PACIFIC RUBIALES: UNDERPERFORM; T.P.: COP 11,400 / CANACOL: UNDERPERFORM; T.P.: COP 5,720) According to the Ministry of Energy, local production reached 1,021 kboepd in March – 2015, equivalent to a 4.2% y/y increase. Here, we highlight that this is the sixth consecutive month that local oil production is placed above 1,000 kboepd. As a result, average oil production for 1Q15 is placed at 1,028 kboepd or 3% higher compared to the same period of 2014. We consider this figure as positive, particularly for Ecopetrol as key oil fields for the state owned company have driven the increase in production. 3 Peru Economics and Politics Ollanta Humala shows support for Tia Maria Project Yesterday, the president ratified his support for the development of the Tia Maria project in Arequipa, after two weeks of environmental led strikes and protests in the communities nearby.“We have to work hard to convince people to give this project an opportunity” he stated. GDP may grow less than 4% according to the Minister of Economy and Finance Alonso Segura pointed out that the economy may grow less than 4% this year, even though the official Ministry’s forecast is 4.2% for 2015. Lower growth may be in part affected by the El Niño phenomenon and whether its intensity affects the recuperation of primary sectors, especially fishing. The deceleration of consumption and investment may hit the official estimates too. IMF: Social policy and educational reforms yield marked results The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported that ambitious educational reforms and inclusive social policy are yielding notable improvements in Peru, which should further continue within the country’s fiscal policy framework. The report highlighted efforts made by the government to streamline processes for issuing licences and investment permits, acceleration of infrastructure projects, diversifying exports and driving innovation. Emphasis was also placed on stronger capacity for the execution of investments and improved understanding of the private sector via Public-Private Partnerships. Moody’s, Fitch: New cabinet maintains GDP forecasts at around 4%; economic policy to remain stable and credible going forward Peru’s new Ministerial Cabinet, led by Pedro Cateriano, will keep 2015 growth forecasts at 4% for the year ahead, confirmed Moody’s VP Jaime Reusche. “In our view, the change in Cabinet has had no effect on the most important factors: prudent management of macro and fiscal policy, which are our fundamental strengths”, he said in an interview. He added that the market conditions are right for the new Cabinet to maintain a dynamic macroeconomic environment for 2015, without the pressure of falling metals prices and the supply shocks that hampered growth last year. Meanwhile Fitch Ratings’ director of sovereign credit ratings for LatAm, Erich Arispe, commented that despite the change in Cabinet, there were no plans to move away from current macroeconomic policy, enhancing Peru’s investment credibility and policy coherence. 4 Inter-American Development Bank: Peru growth to continue generating jobs The lnter-American Development Bank’s (IADB) representative for Peru, Fidel Jaramillo, said that the country’s growth in 2015 would generate numerous jobs and highlighted the importance of consolidating the boom within the domestic economy. He asserted that, “The best social policy is the creation of sustainable employment; the ultimate aim is socially inclusive economic growth”. Company News Gloria Corporation buys all of Maple Energy assets for USD 108mn According to a local news source, the Peruvian company acquired 10 hectares and the ethanol and electricity generating plants located at the Chira Valley in the Piura region for USD 108mn. Maple Energy announced that the funds will be used to pay down debt. 5 Trading Information Traded Volume Country Vol. (USDmn) Best sector Worst Sector Chile 139.3 Consumption / +0.79% Industrial / -1.49% Colombia 71.9 - - Peru 27.7 Banks & Fin. / +0.05% Industrial / -1.03% Volume Leaders Chile USD Th. Gasco $ 23,979.1 Enersis Aguas-A Colombia Clp. % USD Th. Peru Cop. % USD Th. 1.09% Ecopetrol $ 22,770.0 0.00% Rio Alto Mining $ 12,336.8 0.76% PFGrupsura $ 15,605.5 1.85% $ 10,219.1 -0.02% CLH $ 10,817.2 2.36% Pen % $ 26,044 -12.06% Credicorp $ 533 -0.27% Alicorp $ 206 -0.32% Top Winners & Losers Chile Top Winners CLP Security $ 203 Colombia Peru Top Winners COP Cop.% Top Winners 3.67% BVC $ 19 5.08% Milpo $ 1.94 2.11% $ 1,250 2.33% Bogota $ 58,480 3.14% Minsur $ 1.40 1.45% Besalco $ 331 2.14% CLH $ 13,900 2.36% Atacocha-B $ 0.15 0.68% Top Losers CLP COP Cop.% Top Losers PEN / USD Banmedica Clp.% Clp.% Top Losers PEN / USD % % Latam $ 5,268 -1.91% Pacific Rubiales $ 6,030 -4.29% Rio Alto Mining $ 2.48 -12.06% ILC $ 7,307 -1.25% Bancolombia $ 25,940 -1.37% Siderperu $ 0.16 -5.88% Entel $ 6,453 -1.18% Grupo Av al $ 1,185 -0.42% Trev ali $ 0.83 -4.60% Sources: Bloomberg & Credicorp Capital 6 Economic Calendar Chile Date 30-Mar 6-Apr 8-Apr Time 8:30 8:00 Indicator / Event Period Central Bank 1Q Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) Economic Activity YoY Feb-15 CPI MoM Mar-15 Consensus Credicorp Capital Actual Previous 2.0% 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 2.0% 0.6% 3.0% 0.4% Consensus 0.57% - Credicorp Capital - Actual Previous 0.59% 3.0% 1.15% - Consensus 3.13% Credicorp Capital - Actual Previous 0.76% - 0.3% 3.3% Colombia Date 4-Apr 7-Apr Time 14:00 18:00 Indicator / Event CPI MoM Economic Activity Index SA YoY Period Mar-15 Jan-15 Peru Date 1-Apr 9-Apr Time 2:00 2:00 Indicator / Event CPI MoM Reference Rate Period Jan-15 Apr-15 Sources: Bloomberg & Credicorp Capital ECO 7 Important Disclosures This research report was prepared by CredicorpCapital Peru S.A and/or Credicorp Capital Colombia Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or IM Trust S.A. 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Persons in possession of this document should inform themselves about possible legal restrictions and observe them accordingly. 12 CONTACT LIST ANDEAN RESEARCH TEAM SALES & TRADING Heinrich Lessau Hugo Horta Director of Research hlessau@credicorpcapital.com Director of Sales & Trading hhorta@credicorpcapital.com EQUITY RESEARCH EQUITY SALES & TRADING CHILE COLOMBIA PERU Hernán Arellano Francisca Manuschevich César Cuervo Héctor Collantes Head of Equities harellano@credicorpcapital.com Head of Equity Research fmanuschevich@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2446 1798 Head of North Andean Equity Research ccuervo@credicorpcapital.com # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1012 Head of Equity Research hcollantes@credicorpcapital.com # (511) 205 9190 Ext 33052 Javier Günther Marilyn Macdonald Cristián Castillo Christopher DiSalvatore Jaime Pedroza Fernando Pereda Associate: Retail & Financials cdisalvatore@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2446 1724 Senior Analyst: Utilities jpedroza@credicorpcapital.com # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1025 Senior Analyst: Cement & Utilities fpereda@credicorpcapital.com # (511) 205 9190 Ext 37856 International Equity Sales jgunther@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2450 1695 International Equity Sales mar_macdonald@btconnect.com # (4477) 7151 5855 International Sales Trader ccastillo@credicorpcapital.com # (786) 999 1633 CHILE PERU COLOMBIA Arturo Prado Juan C. Domínguez Iván Bogarín René Ossa Rodrigo Zavala Juan A. Jiménez Senior Analyst: Natural Resources aprado@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2450 1688 Senior Analyst: Banks jcdominguez@credicorpcapital.com # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1026 Senior Analyst: Retail & Others ibogarin@credicorpcapital.com # (511) 416 3333 Ext 33055 International Equity Sales reneossa@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2651 9324 Head of Equity - Peru rzavala@credicorpcapital.com # (511) 313 2918 Ext 36044 Head of International Equity Sales jjimenez@credicorpcapital.com # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1701 Andrés Ossa Sebastián Gallego Tamara Vasquez Christian Munchmeyer Ursula Mitterhofer Santiago Castro Analyst: Utilities, Telecom & I.T. aossa@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2651 9332 Analyst: Oil & Gas sgallego@credicorpcapital.com # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1594 Research Assistant tamaravasqueza@credicorpcapital.com # (511) 416 3333 Ext 37946 International Sales & Trading cmunchmeyer@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2450 1613 Sales & Trading umitterhofer@credicorpcapital.com # (511) 313 2918 Ext 32922 International Sales & Trading scastro@credicorpcapital.com # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1344 Tomás Sanhueza Carlos E. Rodriguez Analyst: Food & Beverages, Healthcare tsanhueza@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2446 1751 Analyst: GEA & infrastructure cerodriguez@credicorpcapital.com # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1365 Pilar González FIXED INCOME SALES & TRADING Analyst: Transport mpgonzalez@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2446 1768 Felipe García Lourdes Alamos Head of Fixed Income fgarcia@credicorpcapital.com Research Coordinator & Holdings Analyst lalamos@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2450 1609 FIXED INCOME & ECONOMICS RESEARCH CHILE COLOMBIA PERU Gonzalo Covarrubias Carlos Sanchez Alfredo Bejar Head of Capital Markets gcovarrubias@credicorpcapital.com Head of Fixed Income csanchez@credicorpcapital.com Head of Fixed Income / FX Trading alfredobejarg@credicorpcapital.com CHILE COLOMBIA PERU # (562) 2450 1635 # (571) 323 9154 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 36148 Paulina Yazigi Daniel Velandia Irvin León Guido Riquelme Christian Jarrin Evangeline Arapoglou Head of Research & Chief Economist pyazigi@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2450 1637 Head of Research & Chief Economist dvelandia@credicorpcapital.com # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1505 Senior Fixed Income Analyst ileon@credicorpcapital.com # (511) 416 3333 Ext 37854 Head of Sales griquelme@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2446 1712 RM Fixed Income Offshore cjarrin@credicorpcapital.com # (571) 340 2591 Senior International FI Trader earapoglou@credicorpcapital.com # (511) 313 2902 - # (511) 313 2908 Felipe Lubiano Sergio Ferro Alberto Zapata Belén Larraín Andrés Valderrama Lizeth Espíritu Senior Fixed Income Analyst flubiano@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2651 9308 Fixed Income Analyst sferro@credicorpcapita.com # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1609 Fixed Income Analyst azapatag@credicorpcapital.com # (511) 205 9190 Ext 36018 Head of International FI Sales blarrain@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2446 1720 Fixed Income Trader jvalderramma@credicorpcapital.com # (571) 323 9163 Fixed Income Trader lespiritu@credicorpcapital.com # (511) 313 2902 - # (511) 313 2908 Paulina Valdivieso Camilo A. Durán Paz Stepke José Andrés Riveros Tatiana Dasso Fixed Income Analyst pvaldivieso@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2651 9337 Macro Analyst caduran@credicorpcapital.com # (5511) 339 4400 Ext. 1383 International Fixed Income Sales pstepke@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2651 9336 Fixed Income Trader jriveros@credicorpcapital.com # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1180 Fixed Income Trader tdasso@credicorpcapital.com # (511) 313 2902 Andrés Osorio Benjamín Diaz Economist aosorio@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2446 1760 Local Fixed Income Sales bdiaz@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2446 1738 13
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