Savills Research South Australia Spotlight Adelaide Industrial April 2015 Highlights A total of $329 million (>$1 million) of industrial property sold in the 12 months to March 2015 Approximately 119,500 square metres were reported leased from 50 transactions in the 12 months to March 2015 Infrastructure projects including the $896 million South Road upgrade from Torrens Rd to the River Torrens are set to improve transport in and around the key industrial precincts Net rents in the North West remain stable ranging from $70 to $110 per square metre for prime stock Prime grade land values in the Inner West range from $300 to $400 per square metre for sites up to 5,000 square metres The outlook for Adelaide’s industrial sector for 2015 remains mixed. Sales in the lower price bracket (<$5 million) are likely to remain strong in the short term Savills Research | Adelaide Industrial April 2015 Savills South Australia Team Research Managing Director National Head Tony Crabb +61 (0) 3 8686 8012 Managing Director Rino Carpinelli +61 (0) 8 8237 5005 tcrabb@savills.com.au rcarpinelli@savills.com.au Industrial Sales Industrial Leasing Divisional Director Steve Bobridge +61 (0) 8 8237 5015 Manager Geoff Shuttleworth +61 (0) 8 8237 5017 sbobridge@savills.com.au gshuttleworth@savills.com.au Valuation & Consultancy Property Management Divisional Director Alastair Johnston +61 (0) 8 8237 5041 Associate Director Jeffrey Klaebe +61 (0) 8 8237 5018 acjohnston@savills.com.au jklaebe@savills.com.au Project Services Divisional Director Steve Christodoulou +61 (0) 8 8237 5004 schristodoulou@savills.com.au Savills South Australia Level 2, 50 Hindmarsh Square Adelaide, SA 5000 Australia +61 (0) 8 8237 5000 savills.com.au savills.com.au/research 2 Savills Research | Adelaide Industrial April 2015 Introduction Adelaide’s industrial property market showed mixed results in the 12 months to March 2015. Industrial leasing demand decreased over the period, with total space leased down by 43,419 square metres on the corresponding period in 2014. In contrast industrial sales increased over the preceding 12 month period, up by $109 million. Adelaide’s industrial sector is experiencing a time of great change as commodity prices fall, future defence industry contracts await decisions and several large manufacturing operations prepare to leave. The 25 percent fall in the Australian dollar against the US dollar is providing significant support to South Australia. Further falls will continue to be positive. Throughout this document the Adelaide industrial market will be referred to in five main precincts being the Inner West, North, North West, South and South West. These precincts are recorded below. Precinct Suburbs Inner West Beverley, Thebarton, Adelaide Airport, Hindmarsh North Edinburgh, Burton, Salisbury, Direk, Penfield North West Regency Park, Wingfield, Port Adelaide, Gillman, Dry Creek South Lonsdale, Seaford South West Edwardstown, Plympton Source: Savills Research Infrastructure A number of infrastructure projects are recently completed or are currently underway throughout South Australia. In particular the South Australian Government is focused on improving the main road transport corridor through Adelaide from north to south. Work on the $812 million South Road Superway recently finished with the elevated roadway and final works now complete. The Superway extends 2.8 kilometres from the Port River Expressway to Regency Road. The roadway opened in March 2014 and associated works completed shortly thereafter. A further upgrade to the South Road corridor was announced in mid 2014. The 3.7 kilometre section of South Road from Torrens Road to the River Torrens has been earmarked for the next stage of the upgrade, and is proposed to include a 1.4 kilometre non-stop section of road. Estimated cost of the project is in the region of $896 million. in the state, with both passenger and freight projects underway. One of the largest recent projects is the Seaford rail extension. The project comprises a new 5.7 kilometre section of passenger rail from Noarlunga Centre to the Seaford district centre, and includes a 1.2 kilometre rail bridge spanning the Onkaparinga Valley. Work also continues on the Southern Expressway duplication project. Now recently complete, the expressway allows for two way traffic at all times of the day from Bedford Park to Old Noarlunga. Outside the metropolitan area several infrastructure projects are also underway, predominantly to support mining activities in the State’s north. One of the larger planned projects is the Port Bonython deep sea port. Situated 35km northeast of Whyalla, the new port is intended to handle Focus has also turned to improving rail infrastructure ‘Capesize’ ships capable of carrying 180,000 tonnes of cargo. The new facility is expected to be complete by 2016 and have an estimated cost in the region of $600 million. This combination of infrastructure projects is expected to improve logistics in Adelaide significantly, and also highlight South Australia as a key national transport hub. savills.com.au/research 3 Savills Research | Adelaide Industrial April 2015 Leasing Activity Savills monitors reported industrial leasing activity of properties over 700 square metres of GLA. A total of 119,482 square metres of industrial space has been reported leased from 50 deals in the 12 months to March 2015. The previous corresponding period by comparison recorded a total of 162,901 square metres of stock reported leased from 53 deals. The table below details major leasing deals reported in the 12 months to March 2015. Select Adelaide Industrial Leases to March 2015 Rent Date Property GLA (sq m) ($/sq m) Oct-14 5-17 Taminga St, Regency Park 1,930 68 G Oct-14 10-14 Millers Rd, Wingfield 1,198 92 ASTM Pipe Sales Dec-14 20-22 Tikalara St, Regency Park 2,113 83 Transline Dec-14 182 Cormack Rd, Wingfield 1,540 78 Concrete Formwork Dec-14 82-86 Woomera Ave, Edinburgh 1,072 65 Hunt Energy Dec-14 159-161 Richmond Rd, Richmond 1,004 105 Undisclosed Feb-15 18-20 Carsten Rd, Gepps Cross 1,473 68 Undisclosed Feb-15 33 Cormack Rd, Wingfield 1,250 77 Undisclosed Feb-15 70 Woomera Ave, Edinburgh 1,320 60 Undisclosed Feb-15 9-11 William St, Mile End 1,150 105 Undisclosed Tenant Adelaide Contract W’housing Source: Savills Research Leases in the wholesale occupier sector made up the bulk of Adelaide’s reported industrial leasing activity over the last 12 months, accounting for 54,007 square metres of space reported leased. The sector also had the most number of leasing deals with 25 or 50 percent of the market. The North West and Inner West sectors of the Adelaide industrial market recorded an increase in leasing activity over the previous 12 month period. The Northern industrial precinct was down with the North showing a decrease in leasing activity of 25 percent to 22,203 square metres of leasing activity across 12 deals. Recent leasing activity in the Inner West and North West precincts has predominantly consisted of smaller office warehouse type facilities. In the 12 months to March 2015 Savills recorded approximately 36 percent of all leasing transactions in the Inner West took place in the sub-2,000 square metre segment. Leasing activity across all precincts in this segment of the market has remained relatively strong in recent times. While larger tenant demand has fluctuated it is anticipated that smaller leases will continue to make up the majority of leasing activity. savills.com.au/research 4 Savills Research | Adelaide Industrial Direct leases accounted for the majority of reported industrial transactions in the 12 months to March 2015 with 102,682 square metres or 86 percent of the market. The remaining 16,800 square metres of stock reported leased were renewals. While precommitments began to account for a larger proportion of the market in 2012 and 2013, just two were recorded in 2014 and over the last 12 months no industrial pre-commitments were recorded. In the 12 months to March 2015 Savills recorded the largest volume of industrial leasing activity in the sub 2,000 square metre category, with a total of 41,895 square metres reported leased. This was followed by the >10,000 square metre category which reported 31,800 square metres leased. The greatest number of leasing transactions over the period was also recorded in the sub 2,000 square metre category, accounting for 72 percent of all transactions. April 2015 Adelaide Industrial Metropolitan Leases by Lease Type (sq m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Direct Precommit Source: Savills Research Adelaide Industrial Metropolitan Leases by Lease Size (sq m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 < 2,000 2,000 - 5,000 5,000 - 10,000 10,000 - 15,000 > 15,000 Source: Savills Research Net rents for prime industrial space as at March 2015 typically ranged from $80 to $140 per square metre per annum for industrial buildings in the Inner West, and between $70 and $110 per square metre per annum net for industrial buildings in the North West. Net rents in the South West ranged between $75 and $125 per square metre per annum and $60 to $85 per square metre per annum in the North. Adelaide Industrial Average Prime Net Face Rents by Precinct ($/sq m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Inner West North West North Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 5 Savills Research | Adelaide Industrial April 2015 Sales Activity Savills monitors reported industrial sales activity of properties with a sale price greater than $1 million. Savills recorded approximately $329 million worth of reported industrial property transactions in the 12 months to March 2015. This shows an increase of $109 million on the $218 million recorded in the previous 12 months to March 2014 and also an increase on the historical five year average of $236 million. In the 12 months to March 2015, 57 properties transacted, down from the previous 12 month total of 55, and down on the five year average of 66. The chart below graphically illustrates this level of activity by year. Sales within the price range greater than $30 million made up the majority of recorded transactions over the last 12 months, totalling approximately 56 percent of all sales activity. This translated into $183 million of transactions in the upper price bracket. The last 12 months saw the number of transactions remain broadly the same at 55 versus 57. Sales volumes have been strong in the years following the GFC and 2014 saw a firm continuation of this trend. Adelaide Industrial Metropolitan Industrial Sales ($m and number) (>$1m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 $600 100 90 $500 80 70 $400 60 $300 50 40 $200 30 20 $100 10 $0 0 Sales >$1m (LHS) Sales No (RHS) Source: Savills Research Sales volumes below $10 million continue to be a prominent part industrial market activity, with 53 transactions accounting for $120 million worth of sales recorded over the last 12 months. Traditionally, there has been a significant difference between the lower and higher end sales volumes reflecting strong demand for smaller scale investment opportunities by local private investors and owner occupiers. Although there has been a rise in interest from institutional investors during the last 12 months, there remains limited opportunity to satisfy this demand. Hence private investors and owner occupiers are expected to remain as the predominant buyer groups over the medium term. Adelaide Industrial Land Values <5,000 sq m ($/sq m) Mar-15 Grade Inner West North West North South West South Prime 300 – 400 225 – 275 75 – 110 400 – 500 75 – 120 Secondary 200 – 250 125 – 175 60 – 80 200 – 300 60 – 80 Source: Savills Research Industrial land values remained steady in the 12 months to March 2015, with a limited number transactions taking place in the last 12 months. Prime grade land values for industrial sites in the South West currently range from $400 to $500 per square metre, with the Inner West ranging between $300 and $400 per square metre. Land values in the North currently range from $75 to $110 per square metre for prime sites, and $60 to $80 for secondary locations. savills.com.au/research 6 Savills Research | Adelaide Industrial April 2015 Industrial sales in the North and Inner West precincts both increased during the last 12 months compared with the previous period, to $212 million and $56 million respectively. Sales in the North and North West had the greatest number of transactions accounting for 63 percent of all sales recorded. Sales in the North West were below the same level of preceding 12 month period. The following tables highlight a selection of industrial sales for the 12 months to March 2015. Select Adelaide Industrial Investment Sales to March 2015 Date Property Price ($m) GLA (sq m) $/sq m Yield (%) May-14 Netley Commercial Park 30.25 34,260 883 7.92 Jun-14 113 Ledger Rd, Beverley 7.33 Jun-14 Lots 6 & 8 Sturton Rd, Edinburgh 153.00 8,744 838 11.32 67,947 2,252 7.40 Aug-14 103-109 West Ave, Edinburgh 14.75 5,980 2,467 7.50 Aug-14 146-148 Francis Rd, Wingfield 2.83 1,200 2,358 16.71 Nov-14 34-44 Jonal Dve, Cavan 10.20 8,232 1,239 na Jan-15 6 Sheffield St, Woodville North 2.75 12,271 224 4.36* Price ($m) GLA (sq m) $/sq m Source: Savills Research * part occupied Select Adelaide Industrial Vacant Possession Sales to March 2015 Date Property Jun-14 5-17 Taminga St, Regency Park 9.00 17,150 525 Jun-14 9-17 Tikalara St, Regency Park 3.90 4,638 841 Jun-14 5 Kenilworth Ave, Edwardstown 1.08 1,377 784 Oct-14 5-9 Woomera Ave, Edinburgh Parks 4.50 10,580 425 Oct-14 60-62 Kinkaid Ave, North Plympton 3.50 5,857 598 Dec-14 79 South Terrace, Wingfield 2.37 3,305 716 Jan-15 585 South Rd, Regency Park 2.06 2,113 975 Jan-15 24 Diagonal Rd, Pooraka 2.35 1,980 1,187 Price ($m) Area (sq m) $/sq m Source: Savills Research Select Adelaide Industrial Land Sales to March 2015 Date Property Apr-14 32-38 Kaurna Ave, Edinburgh Parks 1.38 21,790 63 Jun-14 Lot 11 Port Wakefield Rd, Gepps Cross 2.80 20,000 140 Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 7 Savills Research | Adelaide Industrial April 2015 The industrial buyer mix has remained relatively stable over the last 12 months. Institutional investors accounted for the majority of purchases with $193 million worth or 59 percent of the market. This is up on the 23 percent they accounted for in the previous year. The syndicate category increased its share of the market, accounting for around 9 percent. Funds had the largest increase in buyer share over the last 12 months, due to the sale of two assets to Mirvac and Charter Hall respectively. Funds had remained largely absent from the Adelaide market since the GFC, however with four purchases in the last two years they are beginning to make a return to the Adelaide market. Funds were the most active vendor group in the last 12 months accounting for 48 percent of stock sold. Private investors recorded the most sales transactions (23). Market yields for prime industrial buildings in the Inner West were steady in the March 2015 quarter, currently ranging between 8.00 and 8.75 percent. Yields were also steady in the North West and the South West over the last 12 months, ranging between 8.25 and 9.00 percent. Average prime capital values have increased in the Inner West over the last 12 months. The Inner West, North and North West showed a slight increase reflecting relatively strong sales activity and buyer demand for prime grade properties in these precincts. Adelaide Industrial Metropolitan Industrial Sales Buyer Profile (%) (>$1m) 12 months to Mar-15 Private Investor 23% Developer 2% Fund 47% Syndicate 9% Owner Occupier 10% Source: Savills Research Trust 3% Undisclosed 6% Adelaide Industrial Average Prime Market Yields by Precinct (%) Mar-05 to Mar-15 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% Inner West Source: Savills Research North West North Adelaide Industrial Average Prime Capital Values by Precinct ($/sq m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Inner West North West North Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 8 Savills Research | Adelaide Industrial April 2015 Key Market Indicators – March 2015 Inner West Prime Secondary Low High Low High 80 140 50 80 Yield- Market (%) 8.00 8.75 8.75 10.00 IRR (%) 9.50 10.25 10.25 11.50 Outgoings – Total ($/sq m) 12 15 10 12 Capital Values ($/sq m) 900 1,700 500 900 Land Values 3,000 – 5,000 sq m ($/sq m) 300 400 200 250 Rental Net Effective ($/sq m) North West Prime Secondary Low High Low High 70 110 50 70 Yield- Market (%) 8.25 9.00 9.00 10.00 IRR (%) 9.75 10.50 10.50 11.50 Outgoings – Total ($/sq m) 12 15 10 12 Capital Values ($/sq m) 720 1,300 500 780 Land Values 3,000 – 5,000 sq m ($/sq m) 225 275 125 175 Rental Net Effective ($/sq m) North Prime Secondary Low High Low High 60 85 40 60 Yield- Market (%) 8.50 9.50 9.50 10.50 IRR (%) 10.00 10.75 11.00 11.75 Outgoings – Total ($/sq m) 12 15 10 12 Capital Values ($/sq m) 650 1,000 380 630 Land Values 3,000 – 5,000 sq m ($/sq m) 75 110 60 80 Rental Net Effective ($/sq m) South West Prime Secondary Low High Low High 75 125 50 80 Yield- Market (%) 8.25 9.00 9.00 10.00 IRR (%) 9.50 10.50 10.50 11.50 Rental Net Effective ($/sq m) Outgoings – Total ($/sq m) 12 15 10 12 Capital Values ($/sq m) 830 1,565 500 890 Land Values 3,000 – 5,000 sq m ($/sq m) 400 500 200 300 South Prime Secondary Low High Low High 60 90 45 80 Yield- Market (%) 9.00 10.00 10.00 11.00 IRR (%) 10.50 11.50 11.50 11.75 Outgoings – Total ($/sq m) 12 15 10 12 Capital Values ($/sq m) 600 1,000 410 800 Land Values 3,000 – 5,000 sq m ($/sq m) 75 120 60 80 Rental Net Effective ($/sq m) Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 9 Savills Research | Adelaide Industrial April 2015 Outlook The 12 months to March 2015 ended with mixed results for the Adelaide industrial market, with a decrease in overall leasing and an increase in sales transactions on the 12 months to March 2014. Reported industrial leasing activity fell in the 12 months to march 2015, down by approximately 25 percent on the preceding period. Some tenants have taken the opportunity to move into new premises in anticipation of improving economic conditions, while others have been happy to remain and consolidate their holdings. The North and North West precincts have dominated recent leasing activity, with most deals taking place in existing premises. Pre-commitment leases tailed off during the last 12 months but are expected to return with an increase in construction of new facilities. Savills expect the number of leasing deals to remain steady in the short term while the economy continues to recover, increasing in the medium term as a larger number of tenants return to the market. Reported industrial sales increased in the 12 months to March 2015 on the back of slightly weaker sales in the prior twelve months. Sales activity was bolstered by large institutional transactions in the greater than $30 million price bracket. In the range of $15 million to $30 million no sales were recorded. Smaller buyer groups under $5 million such as owner occupiers remain active in the market. A lack of properties being offered for sale in the higher price brackets has resulted in limited activity from larger buyer groups in the market. The North and North West precincts are expected to drive the majority of future sales and leasing activity, particularly due to improvements to infrastructure in the area. Southern industrial areas should also benefit from infrastructure projects such as the Southern Expressway and improvements to the north-south corridor through Adelaide. In the short term additional design and construct developments across the metropolitan area are expected to remain at a similar level to the last 12 months. Over the medium to long term, announcements in the Defence and Mining sectors, population growth and improved public infrastructure are predicted to influence growth for the South Australian industrial market. Savills expect the State’s industrial market will be well positioned to compete for the interest of investors both locally and nationally in the future, with a stable long term outlook and potential for substantial income returns. savills.com.au/research 10 Savills Research | Adelaide Industrial April 2015 Savills Research Team Our highly regarded research divisions are dedicated to understanding and giving indepth insight into the commercial, industrial & retail markets throughout Australia. We also provide in-depth consultancy services, ranging from tenant representation to property site selection for multinational businesses. Our research teams are highly qualified real estate professionals with comprehensive knowledge of property markets across Australia. The Savills Research & Consultancy team has years of experience, and supported by our extensive agency, property management and valuation professionals, are highly regarded and respected along with Savills Research teams across the globe. For our latest reports, contact one of the team or visit savills.com.au/research National Head of Research Tony Crabb +61 (0) 3 8686 8012 tcrabb@savills.com.au Savills provide free research reports on all major property markets, and some example papers include: Office Markets Retail Markets Residential Trends Industrial Markets International Markets Download the Savills iPad App for insights at your fingertips This information is general information only and is subject to change without notice. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Savills will not be liable for any omissions or errors. 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