Savills Research Victoria Spotlight Melbourne Industrial April 2015 Highlights Melbourne’s infrastructure continues to give it a competitive advantage A total of 714,977 square metres was reported leased in the year to March 2015 Pre-commitment activity accounted for 196,991 square metres of reported leasing Industrial rents generally range from $67 to $95 a square metre for prime industrial space A total of $1.37 billion of industrial property was sold in the year to March 2015 Land values range from $95 to $225 a square metre for land between 1 and 5 hectares Investment yields for prime industrial property in a range of 6.75% to 7.75% Signs of a recovery in tenant demand are now underway with solid increases in recent levels of leasing activity Strong competition from local Institutions & Privates as a record number of sales transact Savills Research Savills Research | Melbourne Industrial April 2015 Savills Victoria Team Research Valuation & Consultancy Director Glenn Lampard +61 3 8686 8034 Director Ross Smillie +61 3 8686 8068 glampard@savills.com.au rsmillie@savills.com.au Industrial North West suburbs Director Greg Jensz +61 3 8686 8005 Director Tim Casanelia +61 3 8686 8045 gjensz@savills.com.au tcasanelia@savills.com.au Director Michael Green +61 3 8686 8073 Director David Norman +61 3 8686 8035 mgreen@savills.com.au dnorman@savills.com.au Industrial South East suburbs Director Lynton Williams +61 3 9947 5101 Director Kosta Filinis +61 3 9947 5106 lwilliams@savills.com.au kfilinis@savills.com.au Industrial Investments Director Ben Hegerty +61 3 8686 8074 Director Chris Jones +61 3 8686 8007 bhegerty@savills.com.au cjones@savills.com.au Commercial Management Project Management Associate Director Sarah Coster +61 3 8686 8025 General Manager Chris Adam +61 3 9445 6841 scoster @savills.com.au cadam@savills.com.au Savills Victoria Level 25, 140 William St Melbourne VIC 3000 Australia +61 (0) 3 8686 8000 savills.com.au savills.com.au/research 2 Savills Research | Melbourne Industrial April 2015 Introduction Melbourne is Australia’s largest industrial property market in terms of the amount of land stock with in excess of 25,000 hectares. Industrial users range from domestic service industries such as mechanics and smash repairers to local and national distribution facilities and major manufacturing plants. Some of these industrial requirements are replicated in all capital cities of Australia. Aside from being the largest industrial property market in the country there are a number of other discriminating factors about Melbourne and industry. First, approximately 40% of Australia’s container shipping travels through the Port of Melbourne. This cements the position of Melbourne as a substantial distribution centre. Second, Melbourne remains the manufacturing centre of Australia. Throughout this document the Melbourne industrial market will be referred to in three main precincts being the South East, North West and City Fringe. The main suburbs within these precincts are tabulated below. Precinct Suburbs South East Dandenong, Braeside, Mulgrave, Clayton, Moorabbin, Rowville, Knoxfield, Scoresby, Bayswater, Croydon, Keysborough, Mt Waverley, Notting Hill, Carrum Downs North West Somerton, Campbellfield, Epping, Thomastown, Broadmeadows, Tullamarine, Footscray, Sunshine, Altona, Deer Park, Laverton North, Derrimut, Brooklyn, Truganina City Fringe Port Melbourne, West Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, Collingwood, Abbottsford, Brunswick, South Melbourne Source: Savills Research Infrastructure Melbourne has, without doubt, the best industrial infrastructure in the country. The road system built in the last decade has created a major heavy vehicle route through the centre of the city with a ring road giving easy access to all of metropolitan Melbourne. The road system allows almost uninterrupted access to interstate routes from anywhere within the metropolitan area. In 2008 the Australian Government established the Building Australia Fund to fund critical infrastructure projects, including transport. In the 2009/10 Budget, the Australian Government committed $8.5 billion to projects for road, rail and port infrastructure, of which, $7.8 billion is to be funded through the Building Australia Fund. For Victoria this included preconstruction work for the Melbourne Metro 1 (formerly known as East-West Rail tunnel), aimed at informing the best way to deliver the construction of a new 8 kilometre, two track rail tunnel running under the Melbourne City Business District to relieve congested rail lines and improve travel times. With construction commenced in 2009, the Regional Rail Link is also funded as part of the Building Australia Fund. This link will provide up to 50 kilometres of dual track rail link from West Werribee to Southern Cross Station in central Melbourne via Sunshine and is approaching completion. instructed the East West Connect Partnership to immediately suspend works on the East West Link. Work is instead expected to be prioritised towards the election commitment of removing what it has identified as fifty of the State’s most dangerous and congested level crossings. First identified in Sir Rod Eddington’s independent study into transport connections across Melbourne in 2008, the planning and consultation study for the western section (WestLink) of the East West Link commenced in 2009. Planning was underway for the first stage of the East West Link following the release of the former State Government’s impact statement in late 2013. The contract for construction and maintenance was awarded to East West Connect and Stage 1 was expected to begin before the end of 2014. The new majority State Government arising from the November 2014 election however, ran on the platform that the East West Link contracts would not be honoured because the project was based on a legally unsound business case. As a result, the new Victorian Government has Under the former Victorian State Government, the Port of Hastings was to be the preferred site for future container development, with container throughput at the Port of Melbourne expected to quadruple over the next 25 years. The solution was to supplement rather than replace Melbourne, with both ports expected to continue to operate in parallel. The new State Government shares the previous Government’s aspiration for a proposed second container port; however it is likely to consider an alternative location at Bay West, Little River, near Geelong, as per pre-election undertakings. The new State Government pledged prior to the election that if elected, it will establish Infrastructure Victoria (InVic) and Projects Victoria, independent bodies to look at major projects around the State. savills.com.au/research 3 Savills Research | Melbourne Industrial April 2015 Leasing Activity Savills monitors reported industrial leasing activity of premises with greater than 1,000 square metres of GLA. A total of 714,977 square metres of industrial space was reported leased from 100 deals in the year to March 2015. The previous twelve months by comparison recorded a total of 408,010 square metres of stock leased from 78 deals. This result suggests an improvement in conditions from an environment that has been a difficult one for landlords and developers in recent years. This is further emphasised when compared favourably to the decade average prior to this year of 597,502 square metres per annum. The table below details select major leases reported. Select Melbourne Industrial Existing Leases to March 2015 Property Jan-15 4 Saligna Dr, Tullamarine 1,484 94 Hazard Systems Jan-15 2 Silverton Cl, Laverton North 2,316 76 Joel Australia Jan-15 2 Kingsley Cl, Rowville 1,252 68 Living Elements Feb-15 U1, 49 Calarco Dr, Derrimut 3,100 75 G Umicore Feb-15 400 City Rd, Southbank 9,000 111 Planetshakers Feb-15 235-239 Abbotts Rd, Dandenong 1,873 80 Evo Pet Feb-15 U9, 137-145 Rooks Rd, Nunawading 1,412 139 Kordia Solutions Feb-15 8 Saintly Dr, Truganina 14,000 75 Fastline Logistics Feb-15 416 Somerville Rd, Tottenham 5,124 na Olima Mar-15 234-238 Boundary Rd, Braeside 2,176 67 Adriatic Stone Mar-15 31 Technology Ct, Hallam 2,008 80 Cool Breeze Mar-15 45 Greens Rd, Dandenong South 1,122 67 Rexel Electrical Supplies Source: Savills Research GLA (sq m) Rent Date ($/sq m) Tenant na = not currently available Of the space reported leased during the past year, the focus has been in the North West (66 percent) with the South East essentially taking the remainder (32 percent). City Fringe accounted for less than 2 percent of leases reported. Select Melbourne Industrial Pre-Commitment Leases to March 2015 Property Jun-14 16 Reid Way, Melbourne Airport 4,000 na Nippon Express Sep-14 Cnr Sunline & Efficient Dr, Truganina 14,570 77 Austrans Sep-14 Tullamarine Dr, Tullamarine 43,000 na TNT Sep-14 Tullamarine Dr, Tullamarine 70,000 na Toll Holdings Sep-14 70-86 Atlantic Dr, Keysborough 6,698 90 Adairs Nov-14 Fitzgerald Rd, Derrimut 4,700 111 Vermeer Dec-14 Key Industrial Estate, Kesyborough 15,000 85 Miele Australia Jan-15 70-86 Atlantic Dr, Keysborough 6,789 90 Bluestar Group Mar-15 Logis Blvd, Dandenong South 5,940 na Woodhouse Timber Co. Source: Savills Research GLA (sq m) Rent Date ($/sq m) Tenant na = not currently available savills.com.au/research 4 Savills Research | Melbourne Industrial Savills recorded 196,991 square metres of precommitment activity in the year to March 2015. This is a solid improvement on the activity recorded in the preceding twelve months (85,614 square metres), and down slightly on the historical ten year average of 202,017 square metres. This is indicative of generally improving business confidence with a perceived recovery in financial markets and a reduction of a comparatively high Australian dollar which prior to mid 2013 was at parity or higher against the US dollar. Development finance generally continues to be difficult to acquire, expensive and is dependent on precommiting covenant. There have been some significant precommitment deals successfully completed. These include Goodyear Australia (31,700 square metres, Derrimut & 8,100 square metres, Truganina), Austrans (14,570 square metres, Truganina), Adairs (6,698 square metres, Keysborough), Miele Australia (15,000 square metres, Keysborough), Bluestar Group (6,789 square metres, Keysborough), Woodhouse Timber Company (Dandenong South) and substantial precommitments to TNT and Toll Holdings in Tullamarine. Competition remains strong among developers to secure pre-lease tenants, limiting upward pressure on rents. Whilst some speculatively build developments in the last 18 months have been met with some success, tenant demand generally does not support such. This may change as available prime grade space becomes more limited. April 2015 Melbourne Industrial Metropolitan Leases by Lease Type (sq m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Source: Savills Research Direct Precommit Melbourne Industrial Metropolitan Leases by Lease Size (sq m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 < 2,000 2,000 - 5,000 5,000 - 10,000 10,000 - 15,000 > 15,000 Source: Savills Research Over the six years from 2001 to 2007 low interest rates encouraged many industrial occupiers to become owner-occupiers. Approximately 20 percent of reported sales over those six years were to owner-occupiers. This led to a more subdued rental market than would have otherwise been the case. The prevailing low interest rate environment has again been providing opportunities in the owner occupier market which until very recently represented circa 17% of reported sales value and is currently 12% over the year to March 2015 as Private Investors and Fund purchasers in particular increase their presence as a proportion of total sales. Over the decade, the growth in rents has been due mostly to the ongoing erosion of development profit margins. savills.com.au/research 5 Savills Research | Melbourne Industrial Construction costs have generally retreated in recent years whilst pre-commitment rents have remained steady, albeit with the introduction of incentives. We believe the industrial rental market is entering a stage where improving fundamentals may build a case for upward pressure on rents, though at levels at or below CPI. Sales Activity Savills monitors reported industrial property sales activity with a price greater than $2 million. Over the year to March 2015 a total of 138 sales were reported with a total value of $1,367 million. This was substantially more than the level recorded over the previous twelve month period when a total of $1,015 million of sales were reported. The number of transactions was also up significantly on the 78 recorded in the previous period. Melbourne’s South East recorded the most number of transactions in the year to March 2015 with 76 (55% of all sales), however it was the North West region that accounted for the greatest dollar volume with 46 percent of the total transaction value for the year. In the South East, the Private Investor buyer group slightly edged out the combined Fund and Trust category, with 30 percent and 28 percent of the value of stock reportedly sold respectively. Owner Occupiers have a comparatively high proportion also, accounting for 19 percent of total sales value. Fund and Trust investor demand is traditionally strong in the North West, however Private Investors represented the largest buyer category by value of all stock, at 41 percent. Funds and Trusts made up 23 percent of total sales volume. April 2015 Sales in the price range of $2 million to $10 million made up a robust 31 percent of total sales activity by value. A total of $424 million dollars was exchanged in this price bracket which is up on the 10 year average of $317 million. Significantly, $638 million was transacted in the price bracket greater than $20 million which is considerably higher than the prior 10 year average of $426 million. Melbourne Industrial Average Prime Net Face Rents by Precinct ($/sq m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 City Fringe North & West South Eastern Source: Savills Research Melbourne Industrial Metropolitan Industrial Sales ($m and number) (>$2m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 $2,000 160 $1,800 140 $1,600 120 $1,400 $1,200 100 $1,000 80 $800 60 $600 40 $400 20 $200 $0 0 Sales >$2m (LHS) Sales No (RHS) Source: Savills Research Melbourne Industrial Land Values – March 2015 Precinct 3,000 – 5,000 sq m ($/sqm) 10,000 – 50,000 sqm ($/sqm) 10ha + ($/sq m) Englobo ($/sq m) North & West 145 – 225 up to 300 95 – 155 up to 200 70 – 100 20 - 60 600 – 900 500 – 800 na na 185 – 240 up to 300 170 – 250 110 – 140 30 – 80 City Fringe South Eastern Source: Savills Research na = not currently available savills.com.au/research 6 Savills Research | Melbourne Industrial April 2015 The following tables highlight a selection of industrial sales for the year to March 2015. Select Melbourne Industrial Investment Sales to March 2015 Date Property Price ($m) GLA (sq m) $/sq m Yield (%) Jun-14 4 Kingsway, Moorabbin 22.60 28,490 793 8.60 Jun-14 13-15 Joel Crt, Moorabbin 19.00 17,512 1,085 8.15* Jul-14 Cooper St, Epping^ 77.40 na na 9.60 Aug-14 215 Browns Rd, Noble Park 20.80 43,949 473 10.00 Sep-14 32-58 William Angliss Dr, Laverton North 43.50 46,052 945 8.08* Sep-14 13-19 William Angliss Dr, Laverton North 49.00 50,930 962 na Sep-14 495-501 Blackburn Rd, Mount Waverley 63.00 23,724 2,656 8.60 Sep-14 42-44 Garden St, Kilsyth 19.00 25,887 734 8.50 Oct-14 365-391 Plummer St, Port Melbourne 30.00 19,400 1,546 na Nov-14 39 Gregory St, Ballarat 8.25 13,657 604 8.30 Nov-14 573-577 Springvale Rd, Mulgrave 8.05 4,000 2,013 6.20 Dec-14 2-12 Banfield Crt, Truganina 95.00 76,938 1,235 6.50 Dec-14 28-38 Salta Dr, Altona North 14.50 23,854 608 na Dec-14 106-110 Micro Ct, Dandenong 3.04 2,424 1,254 6.75 Feb-15 Estate One, Dandenong South 39.25 27,919 1,406 7.70 Mar-15 Keysborough Distribution Centre 36.60 40,000 915 na Source: Savills Research * equated yield ^under construction **part of portfolio na = not currently available Select Melbourne Industrial Vacant Possession Sales to March 2015 Date Property Price ($m) GLA (sq m) $/sq m Dec-14 1663 Centre Rd, Springvale 4.61 4,512 1,022 Dec-14 16 Crompton Wy, Dandenong South 3.98 3,054 1,302 Dec-14 155-157 Wellington Rd, Mulgrave 3.15 2,409 1,308 Mar-15 36-40 Futura Rd, Keysborough 2.85 4,722 604 Mar-15 308-316 Abbotts Rd, Dandenong South 7.70 10,714 719 Mar-15 77 Rushdale St, Knoxfield 2.88 2,375 1,211 Source: Savills Research Select Melbourne Industrial Land Sales to March 2015 Date Property Price ($m) Area (sq m) $/sq m Aug-14 1 Audsley St, Clayton 2.40 6,400 375 Aug-14 215 Cooper St, Epping 10.00 460,000 22 Dec-14 165-211 Robinsons Rd, Ravenhall 6.18 31,727 195 Jan-15 33-39 Chelmsford St, Williamstown 2.30 5,978 385 Feb-15 Canterbury Rd, Braeside 6.50 232,850 28 Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 7 Savills Research | Melbourne Industrial The dynamics of industrial buyers has changed significantly since the global credit crisis and has impacted most profoundly on trusts and funds. In 2008 and 2009 Savills witnessed a considerable return to the industrial property investment market of private investors. These investors were largely sidelined in the years leading up to the peak of the market in late 2007 as the weight of money invested by trusts and funds placed upward pressure on capital values, out-pricing other investors. Private investors represented 60 percent of total activity ($365 million) in 2009 while there were no purchases by trusts and only $9 million in purchases by the funds. April 2015 Government 0% Undisclosed 0% Melbourne Industrial Metropolitan Industrial Sales Buyer Profile (%) (>$2m) 12 months to Mar-15 Private Investor 36% Developer 12% Foreign Investor 9% Syndicate 8% Fund 18% Source: Savills Research Trust 5% Owner Occupier 12% Melbourne Industrial Average Prime Market Yields by Precinct (%) Mar-05 to Mar-15 10.0% In the last two years, Funds and Trusts have returned to the market to generally represent circa 40 percent of the total value of transactions. Given the amount of capital raising, debt restructuring and slow easing of restrictions to debt finance, Funds and Trusts are generally better positioned to actively participate in the market. Private investors were until the year 2013, the dominant buyer in the industrial market. They remain a significant part of the investor market, particularly at present with the combatively high volume of sales sub $20 million. Owner occupiers accounted for the purchase of 12 percent of stock greater than $2 million reported as sold in the Melbourne industrial market. A continued high number of owner occupiers as a buyer category is expected as the low interest rate environment is likely to remain, with some expectation around a further decrease in official cash rates in the coming quarter. 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% City Fringe North & West South Eastern Source: Savills Research Melbourne Industrial Average Prime Capital Values by Precinct ($/sq m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 City Fringe North & West South Eastern Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 8 Savills Research | Melbourne Industrial April 2015 Market yields for prime industrial buildings as at March 2015 are estimated to range between 6.75% and 7.75% for each of Melbourne’s sub regions; the North West, South East and City Fringe. Recent downward pressure on industrial prime yields has occurred as Funds and Trusts have increasingly returned to the sector. After remaining steadfast for several years, prime yields at both ends of their range have indicatively come in 50 to 100 basis points over the last twelve months. Despite little or no change to prime industrial face rents in Melbourne’s sub regions, the compression of yields has helped return some value to industrial assets over the last twelve months. Indicative prime capital values for assets in the North West and South East have increased around 8.6 percent for the year to March 2015. Key Market Indicators – March 2015 South Eastern Prime Secondary Low High Low High 70 90 55 65 Yield (% Net Face Rental) 6.75 7.75 8.25 9.00 IRR (%) 8.50 9.25 9.50 9.75 11 15 9 13 1,100 1,450 775 900 Rental – Net Effective ($/sq m) Outgoings – total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) North & West Prime Secondary Low High Low High 67 80 50 60 Yield (% Net Face Rental) 6.75 7.75 8.25 9.00 IRR (%) 8.50 9.25 9.50 9.75 Outgoings – total ($/sq m) 10 15 8 15 Capital Values ($/sq m) 860 1,150 550 750 Rental – Net Effective ($/sq m) City Fringe Prime Secondary Low High Low High 90 150 65 90 Yield (% Net Face Rental) 6.75 7.75 8.25 9.00 IRR (%) 8.50 9.25 9.50 9.75 25 38 25 38 1,250 2,200 800 1,100 Rental – Net Effective ($/sq m) Outgoings – total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 9 Savills Research | Melbourne Industrial April 2015 Outlook Melbourne is home to a large and competitive industrial property market. The market contains a wide range of participants from end-to-end property solutions companies, investors and developers to owner occupiers and tenants. The outlook for business investment remains strong and the outlook for manufacturing and exports has recently improved given the depreciating value of the Australian dollar against other major currencies. Anecdotally, it is the locally produced goods likely to fill sheds in order to satisfy the improving domestic demand for domestic product given comparatively cheaper prices to imported goods. Strong demand for food manufacturing in particular was reflected in double digit growth in the hospitality retail categories for the 2014 year. This compared to only a 5.4 percent annual increase in total retail turnover on a seasonally adjusted basis. The industrial sector has also benefited from structural issues in the retail sector, provided by the new business model strategy of “Clicks and Bricks” (online retailing). Anecdotally, growth in online shopping is being driven locally, both by purely internet based sellers and to a smaller extent, existing traditional retailers. Warehouse space is currently being occupied by goods for sale at bricks and mortar locations. But at the periphery there is a very large business growing in taking goods from warehouses direct to people's houses. Over the next 10 years it is probable to go in leaps and bounds. It is expected that the traditional retailers will compete by setting up their version of Clicks and Bricks, reducing the number of retail outlets and going into warehouses. Traditional domestic retailers would be expected to increase their industrial exposure as the domestic market becomes more competitive given the recent reduction in the value of the Australian dollar to the US dollar in particular. The global credit crisis did impact the Melbourne industrial property market. Developers experienced difficulty accessing appropriate funding for new developments and, to a lesser extent, refurbishments effectively choking supply. A gap emerged between vendor and buyer expectations resulting in a “standoff” in the sales market. Savills believes these factors have abated and the market has returned to its fundamentally strong position. Activity was solid throughout 2011 but soft market conditions remained over 2012 and 2013 as the global financial markets remained volatile with the domestic economy soft and the currency generally strong. A lack of consumer and business confidence has frustrated any real economic recovery although current levels of leasing and investment would suggest that recovery is now underway. We expected 2014 to provide an improvement in activity as higher population growth starts to impact favourably on domestic economic conditions. Whilst the occupational side of the industrial market is coming from a subdued base, we believe there to be a start in the recovery, reflected by the improving leasing transaction scenario. We also expect financial markets to become more stable adding to an improvement in industrial conditions. Private Investors have clearly been attracted to the comparatively high investment yields, the simple investment parameters of industrial – single tenant, simple building, long lease, low capital expenditure requirements. The weight of money from institutional investors for prime industrial assets and resultant tightening of yields is likely to weaken demand from a private investor perspective however; but this may yet give rise to demand opportunistic demand in the secondary grade industrial market. Higher levels of market activity at the sub $20 million level suggest that this is where privates are focussed to reveal opportunities, and yield. The low interest rate environment should also ensure a proportion of owner occupier demand at the lower end of the market. Now that 2015 has brought with it continued expectation of a low interest rate environment with the likelihood of a further reduction in our office cash rate, the proportion of owner occupiers in the market should increase. The South East continues to record significant owner occupier activity at 19 percent. The Melbourne industrial property market is well placed to compete for occupiers of industrial property both regionally and locally as it has not only an abundance of developable land at extremely affordable and competitive terms, it also has a large workforce and world class infrastructure. Substantial investment in infrastructure is ongoing. Whilst the outlook for demand is positive, the large supply of industrial land remains a pricing constraint with more unzoned land also in reserve. This is expected to contain growth in pre-commitment rents as a function of growing tenant demand. Nevertheless, there are locations in Melbourne where land availability is tight, especially central and inner Melbourne. This has facilitated higher land rates in the last twelve months in some locations. Savills expects key industrial market parameters to improve throughout 2015. With a perception that business confidence is likely to return to the general economy, so too should there be further increases in transaction activity, the start of which we have already witnessed. With some weakness continuing in the occupancy side of secondary asset market however, investment activity is expected to remain primarily for the high quality or prime assets. Investment transaction activity will be limited somewhat as the precommitted strong covenants being brought to the market are in reduced numbers in the current environment. That being said, the trend of assets being brought to the market as portfolios is likely to continue as vendors look to take advantage of the robust investment activity. savills.com.au/research 10 Savills Research | Melbourne Industrial April 2015 Savills Research Team Our highly regarded research divisions are dedicated to understanding and giving indepth insight into the commercial, industrial & retail markets throughout Australia. We also provide in-depth consultancy services, ranging from tenant representation to property site selection for multinational businesses. Our research teams are highly qualified real estate professionals with comprehensive knowledge of property markets across Australia. The Savills Research & Consultancy team has years of experience, and supported by our extensive agency, property management and valuation professionals, are highly regarded and respected along with Savills Research teams across the globe. 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