Savills Research Western Australia Spotlight Perth CBD Office April 2015 Highlights Savills recorded approximately 54,026 square metres of CBD office leasing activity in the 12 months to March 2015 Prime Full Floor immediate availability has stabilised over the last 12 months at 97 floors as at February 2015 The business and finance sectors reportedly leased the greatest amount of space at 31,446 square metres in the last twelve months A number of options are available in the market for tenants seeking whole floor, prime quality space Savills has recorded approximately $133 million worth of office transactions in the year to March 2015 Softening effective rents and rising incentives are favouring tenants in the current leasing market Softening effective rents & rising incentives favoring tenants in current leasing market Savills Research Savills Research | Perth CBD Office April 2015 Savills West Australia Team Research Managing Director National Head Tony Crabb +61 (0) 3 8686 8012 Managing Director Paul Craig +61 (0) 8 9488 4156 tcrabb@savills.com.au pcraig@savills.com.au Leasing Property Management Divisional Director Graham Postma +61 (0) 8 9488 4153 Divisional Director Jason Ridge +61 (0) 8 9488 4118 gpostma@savills.com.au jridge@savills.com.au Investment Sales Valuation & Consultancy Divisional Director Miles Rowe +61 (0) 8 9488 4116 Divisional Director Mark Foster-Key +61 (0) 8 9488 4145 mrowe@savills.com.au mfosterkey@savills.com.au Project Management General Manager Graham Nash +61 (0) 8 6271 0306 gnash@savills.com.au Savills West Australia Level 27, 108 St Georges Terrace Perth, WA 6000 Australia +61 (0) 8 9488 4111 savills.com.au savills.com.au/research 2 Savills Research | Perth CBD Office April 2015 Introduction The Perth CBD office market currently contains1.6 million square metres of lettable space. Of this, over 58% at 930,000 square metres is of Prime (Premium and A Grade) quality and the balance (670,000 square metres) Secondary Grade. Throughout this document rental rates reflect a net effective rent on a single, whole floor in the mid-rise of a building unless specifically otherwise stated. Office Development Soaring rents and declining vacancy that came as a result of the mining boom in 2011 saw the activation of a new development cycle in the Perth CBD. There are currently nine buildings under construction (including refurbishments) totalling almost 207,000 square metres of space. Of these developments all but one are due for completion in 2015; with Capital Square being scheduled for completion in 2018. Perth Office CBD Forecast Gross Office Supply by Type (sq m) 2015 to 2022 160,000 Well over half of the CBD’s office space is of Prime quality grade 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 Savills Research 40,000 20,000 0 2015 2016 Precommitment 2017 New 2018 2019 Mooted 2020 Refurb 2021 2022 Backfill Source: Savills Research Total CBD office stock recently increased 10,947 square metres as a result of the completion of the nine-level 863 Hay Street development. Due to uncertain market conditions and the large amount of stock scheduled for completion it is unlikely that the city will see construction of any more new developments in the short to medium term; it is forecast to take some time for the market to fully absorb and adjust to the 2015 stock additions, and only once this has occurred is it likely that the next development cycle commences unless a significant precommitment is secured. Beyond 2015 there is just one building under construction; 55,000 square metres at Capital Square due in 2018; beyond 2018 there are a number of mooted developments including those in the Elizabeth Quay, City Link and Waterbank precincts. Perth may see several of smaller developments over the next six years, but a new development cycle is unlikely to get underway before 2020 when we may see the likes of Chevron’s new headquarters at Elizabeth Quay. savills.com.au/research 3 Savills Research | Perth CBD Office April 2015 Current Perth CBD Office Development Activity Property Precinct NLA (sq m) Type Status May Holman - 32 St Georges Tce Mid CBD 14,895 Refurb UC Mar-15 Legal Aid 999 Hay St West CBD 10,800 New UC Mar-15 GHD Treasury Building - St Georges Tce Mid CBD 30,219 New UC Jun-15 State Government Kings Square 1 - Wellington St West CBD 23,000 New UC Jun-15 Kings Square 2 - Wellington St West CBD 19,000 New UC Jun-15 Shell Kings Square 3 - Wellington St West CBD 8,000 New UC Jun-15 Leighton / John Holland Kings Square 4 - Wellington St West CBD 13,000 New UC Jun-15 HBF Brookfield South - 123 St Georges Tce West CBD 32,000 New UC Dec-15 Delloitte, Corrs, Brookfield Capital Square - 98 Mounts Bay Rd West CBD 55,000 New UC Jun-18 Woodside Source: Cordells / Savills Research DA: Development Approval EP: Early Planning Completion Major Tenant UC: Under Construction Leasing Activity Following a relatively quiet 2013, leasing activity and enquiry 2014 remained subdued. In the 12 months to March 2015, Savills recorded 54,026 square metres of leasing activity in the Perth CBD office market. This is down 53 percent on the 12 months prior, and down on the five year average of 117,683 square metres. The majority of these leases (approximately 63 percent of space leased) were in the West CBD precinct. It is to be noted that 24 percent of the deals reported in this period were renewals for existing tenants, while a further 17 percent were subleases. leasing activity in the area. Of the 54,026 square metres reported leased in Perth CBD in the last 12 months, the ‘Mining’ sector was the dominant sector leasing 38 percent of the stock, or 23,431 square metres, followed by the ‘Property & Business Services’ sector which accounted for a further 27 percent of deals done. In the 12 months to March 2015 ‘Direct’ leases accounted for the majority of office space reported leased in the Perth CBD office market comprising 31,703 square metres or 59 percent of reported Softening face rents and increasing incentives are creating conditions that favour tenants, resulting in a flight to quality as companies negotiate better deals and upgrade their space. Incentives are now at a level which will substantially (if not fully) cover tenants’ fit-out costs. A selection of recent leasing transactions is displayed in the table below. Select Perth CBD Office Leases to March 2015 NLA (sq m) Rent ($/sq m) 233 Adelaide Terrace 1,049 470 Superpartners Oct-14 140 St Georges Terrace 1,055# 660 Bechtel Oct-14 140 St Georges Terrace 1,106 660 Halliburton Oct-14 221 St Georges Terrace 737 600 Environmental Resources Nov-14 140 St Georges Terrace 557 655 HBA Legal Nov-14 140 St Georges Terrace 428 705 PPB Pty Ltd Nov-14 221 St Georges Terrace 225 595 Swift Technical Dec-14 44 St Georges Terrace 234 695 Conglin International Investments Dec-14 22 Mount St 525 350 AAIG Dec-14 218 St Georges Terrace 640 475 Civica Date Property Oct-14 Source: Savills Research *sublease Tenant # renewal savills.com.au/research 4 Savills Research | Perth CBD Office April 2015 CBD net face rents have been decreasing since mid-2012 Perth Office Total Reported Leased in Perth CBD (%) 12 months to Mar-15 Finance and Insurance 23% IT & Communication 1% Property & Business services 27% Savills Research Mining & Utilities & Industry 38% Source: Savills Research Govt & Community 8% Undisclosed 3% Unlike other Australian CBD markets, Perth did not experience significant negative absorption in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis; it was somewhat sheltered by the booming resources sector. The driving factors behind the recent negative absorption figures include the increase in sublease space available in the market, as some companies downsize and reassess their accommodation needs in the wake of the slowdown in the mining sector. Since mid-2012 CBD rents have been subject to downward pressure as increasing vacany and low enquiry levels impacted the market; face rents are expected to soften further during 2015 as a result of the significant supply additions due. Savills has recorded average Premium Grade net face rents as at March 2015 at $715 to $800 per square metre, whilst A Grade range from $575 to $750 and B Grade $395 to $525. As well as softening face rents, incentives have been on the rise. As at March 2015 incentives across all grades in the CBD were recorded at 25 to 30 percent - the highest level recorded since 2006. savills.com.au/research 5 Savills Research | Perth CBD Office April 2015 Office Vacancy Office vacancy in the Perth CBD increased 5.8 percentage points over 2014 to 14.8 percent at January 2015. Vacancy increased as a result of subdued tenant demand and a number of businesses re-evaluating their staffing and accommodation needs. The rise in vacancy was experienced in both prime and secondary assets; indeed all grades of office accommodation experienced an increase in vacant space over the year, albeit with the lower grades experiencing the largest increases demonstrating the flight to quality that is resulting from the market turning in tenants favour. Subdued rents and rising incentives are providing a number of favourable options for tenants in the current market. While vacancy seems high for Perth, is only marginally higher than the national CBD vacancy rate of 11.2 percent. The increase in vacancy has come almost entirely from direct vacancy, with sublease vacancy only increasing by 0.1 percentage points in the 12 months to January. Perth Office CBD Vacancy by Grade (%) Mar-05 to Mar-15 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Prime Vacancy Source: Savills Research Secondary Vacancy Total Vacancy New supply due in 2015 is expected to increase vacancy further, with vacancy expected to peak in late 2015 before the new supply is gradually absorbed by the market (beyond 2016). Demand conditions are likely to improve as the effects of reduced interest rates and depreciating Australian dollar are felt in the market, and while lease terms continue to favour tenants. Perth CBD Office Vacancy – January 2015 Grade Stock (sq m) Vacancy (sq m) Vac % Jan-15 Vac % Jan-14 Premium 322,722 27,569 8.5 1.4 A Grade 627,142 95,022 15.2 10.2 B Grade 465,470 80,814 17.4 11.3 C Grade 201,662 32,483 16.1 12.3 D Grade 8,122 4,044 49.8 7.4 1,625,118 239,932 14.8 9.0 Total Source: PCA/Savills Research savills.com.au/research 6 Savills Research | Perth CBD Office April 2015 Full Floor Availability In Savills’ Prime Full Floor Availability Report, the state of the leasing market is assessed in a different manner to most vacancy surveys. The report graphically shows each Premium and A Grade building in the city on a floor-by-floor basis highlighting which whole floors are competing for tenants - both now and in the future - including those under construction and refurbishment. Results from the February 2015 Prime Full Floor Availability Report are detailed below. Perth Full Floor Report – February 2015 By Grade Total Premium 847 222 West CBD Mid CBD East CBD 625 488 252 82 1,070,826 353,951 716,874 680,776 256,602 105,538 151 41 110 96 37 6 184,586 60,885 123,701 123,782 36,282 11,514 17.2% 17.2% 17.3% 18.2% 14.1% 10.9% 18 10 18 18 4 3 23,400 10,000 23,400 23,400 4,252 5,479 Total Prime Floors Total Prime NLA (sq m) Prime Floors Available (No) Prime Full Floor Availability (sq m) Prime Full Floor Availability (%) Max Contiguous Floors (No) Max Contiguous Floors (sq m) By Sector A Grade Source: Savills Research Compared to December 2013, the number of full floors available has increased slightly from 141 to 151 in February 2015. Of the 151 prime floors vacant 97 are available for immediate occupation while the remaining 54 floors are in new developments or backfill space that will become available at a future date. Of the 54 floors to become available in the future, 33 will become available for occupation in the next six to 12 months. Perth Office Full Floors Available - Quarterly (%) Dec-05 to Dec-14 6% 151 prime whole prime floors are available for lease in the Perth CBD 4% Savills Research 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 2% 0% Full Floor Vacancy Linear (Full Floor Vacancy) savills.com.au/research 7 Savills Research | Perth CBD Office April 2015 Sales Activity After a record year of transactions in 2013, office sales in 2014 were somewhat restrained. Savills have recorded approximately $133 million worth of office transactions in the 12 months to March 2015 in the Perth CBD area. This is down 91 percent from the acute high of $1,541 million in the previous 12 months, and down on the five year average of $704 million. Over the past twelve months three properties were reported sold, down from the previous year of 13, and down on the five year average of 11. There have only been two transactions of great significance in 2014: the $35 million sale of 220 St Georges Terrace in November, and the $91 million sale of 256 Adelaide Terrace in April. Perth Office CBD Office Sales ($m and number) (>$1m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 $1,800 35 $1,600 30 $1,400 25 $1,200 $1,000 20 $800 15 $600 10 $400 $133m of CBD office stock sold in the 12 months to March 2015 Savills Research 5 $200 0 $0 Sales > $1m (LHS) Sales No (RHS) Source: Savills Research Perth office stock has traditionally been purchased by domestic investors, yet is rapidly growing in esteem with offshore buyers as demonstrated by two major transactions in of 2014. Offshore capital continues to look for opportunities in Perth due to its countercyclical nature with the eastern states allowing a level of diversification; Perth assets also tend to be higher-yielding than those on the eastern seaboard. As a result of these factors both domestic and foreign capital should continue to seek Perth assets with solid leaseexpiry profiles, however transactional activity is limited by a dearth of stock being presented for sale. Perth Office CBD Office Sales Buyer Profile (%) 12 months to Mar-15 Foreign Investor 69% In the year to March 2015, 69% of office sales were to foreign investors Savills Research Private Investor 26% Undisclosed 5% Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 8 Savills Research | Perth CBD Office April 2015 Select Perth CBD Office Sales to March 215 Date Property Price ($m) NLA (sq m) $/sq m Yield (%) Apr-14 256 Adelaide Tce 91.00 17,719 5,136 10.72 Nov-14 220 St Georges Terrace 35.00 9,197 3,806 na Source: Savills Research na = not available Of the $133 million worth of transactions reported in the Perth CBD in the 12 months to March 2015, 69 percent or $91 million were sold to foreign investors. In the 12 months to December 2013 there were no sales made to foreign investors; on average over the past five years there have been only 11 percent of total sales made to overseas purchasers. This further highlights the recent increase in interest in Perth assets from foreign capital. Market yields have gone through a prolonged period of stagnation. Market yields in the Perth CBD as at March 2015 are estimated to range between 7.50% and 8.75% for A Grade buildings, and between 8.75% and 10.25% for secondary grade buildings. The average yield for A Grade office buildings in the quarter to March 2015 is 8.13%, no change over the year. Capital values have generally eased over the past 12 months especially in secondary grade space predominantly as a function of a fall in effective rents but also a rise in vacancy. Capital values in the Perth CBD as at March 2015 are estimated to range from $6,600 per square metre to $10,000 per square metre for A Grade buildings, and between $4,150 per square metre and $6,000 per square metre for secondary grade buildings. Average capital values for A Grade properties are $8,300 per square metre, no change over the year. savills.com.au/research 9 Savills Research | Perth CBD Office April 2015 Key Market Indicators - March 2015 Premium A Grade B Grade Low High Low High Low High Rental – Gross Effective ($/sq m) 640 710 525 675 405 515 Rental – Net Face ($/sq m) 715 800 575 750 395 525 Rental – Net Effective ($/sq m) 518 580 417 544 260 345 Outgoings – Operating ($/sq m) 115 125 95 120 95 110 Outgoings – Statutory ($/sq m) 50 60 50 60 50 60 Outgoings – Total ($/sq m) 165 185 145 180 145 170 Typical Lease Term (years) 7 10 5 7 5 7 Yield – Market (% Net Face Rental) 6.75 7.75 7.50 8.75 8.75 10.25 IRR (%) 8.50 9.00 8.75 9.75 9.50 10.50 Cars Permanent Reserved ($/pcm) 750 800 700 750 550 685 Cars Permanent ($/pcm) 700 765 600 700 500 600 9,200 11,800 6,600 10,000 4,150 6,000 Office Component Capital Values ($/sq m) Source: Savills Research. NB – All rents equivalent to whole floor mid-rise Outlook While leasing conditions in the Perth office market are undoubtedly restrained, continued strong economic fundamentals such as population growth and low unemployment ensure that the market is supported. Vacancy rates are at a five-year high, and the substantial amount of stock additions due in 2015 should result in the vacancy rate increasing further. As a result of this increasing vacancy, effective rents are expected to remain under pressure, although to a lesser degree than what was seen over 2014. Incentives may also increase a little further, while still being below the levels being seen in the eastern states. The Perth market is closely correlated with the resources sector, which is known for its rapid changes; all it would take is for one ‘proposed’ resources project to be moved into the ‘committed’ phase to spark a renewed spike in office demand. Perth’s capital transactions market is anticipated to continue to be popular with both foreign and domestic investors over the medium term, as comparatively high yields persist in attracting capital. However actual transaction volumes are severely hindered by the lack of suitable stock being presented for sale. savills.com.au/research 10 Savills Research | Perth CBD Office April 2015 Savills West Australia Team Our highly regarded research divisions are dedicated to understanding and giving indepth insight into the commercial, industrial & retail markets throughout Australia. We also provide in-depth consultancy services, ranging from tenant representation to property site selection for multinational businesses. Our research teams are highly qualified real estate professionals with comprehensive knowledge of property markets across Australia. The Savills Research & Consultancy team has years of experience, and supported by our extensive agency, property management and valuation professionals, are highly regarded and respected along with Savills Research teams across the globe. For our latest reports, contact one of the team or visit savills.com.au/research National Head of Research Tony Crabb +61 (0) 3 8686 8012 tcrabb@savills.com.au Savills provide free research reports on all major property markets, and some example papers include: Office Markets Retail Markets Residential Trends Industrial Markets International Markets Download the Savills iPad App for insights at your fingertips This information is general information only and is subject to change without notice. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Savills will not be liable for any omissions or errors. 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