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Savills Research
New South Wales
Spotlight
Sydney CBD Office
April 2015
Highlights
 The latest numbers from PCA indicate that overall


vacancy has decreased to 7.4%, down from 9% 12
months earlier
Full floor availability as at February 2015 is currently
sitting at 14.5%, with 11 available options for tenants
>10,000 square metres
Net absorption of 78,262 square metres was
recorded in the 12 months to December 2014
 Sales activity in the 12 months to March 2015


totalled $4.5 billion, 55% higher than the amount
recorded in the prior 12 month period
Foreign Investors were responsible for 60% of these
sales totalling more than $2.7 billion
Indicative A Grade yields firmed by 25 basis points at
the lower end of the and now range from 6.00% to
7.00%
Savills Research | Sydney CBD Office
April 2015
Savills New South Wales Team
Research
Managing Director
Divisional Director
Simon Hemphill
+61 (0) 2 8215 8892
Managing Director
Simon Fenn
+61 (0) 2 8215 8830
shemphill@savills.com.au
sfenn@savills.com.au
Head of Leasing
Rob Dickins
+61 (0) 2 8215 8833
Divisional Director
James Michail
+61 (0) 2 8215 8839
rdickins@savills.com.au
jmichail@savills.com.au
Leasing
Valuation & Consultancy
Divisional Director
Lester Alvis
+61 (0) 2 8215 8857
Divisional Director
Roger Price
+61 (0) 2 8215 8855
lalvis@savills.com.au
rprice@savills.com.au
Investment Sales
Divisional Director
Ian Hetherington
+61 (0) 2 8215 8925
Associate Director
Ben Azar
+61 (0) 2 8215 8824
ihetherington@savills.com.au
bazar@savills.com.au
Corporate Real Estate
Project Management
Divisional Director
John Mackenzie
+61 (0) 2 8215 8982
General Manager
David Nicholas
+61 (0) 2 8913 4813
jmackenzie@savills.com.au
dnicholas@savills.com.au
Savills New South Wales
Level 7, 50 Bridge Street
Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia
+61 (0) 2 8215 8888
savills.com.au
savills.com.au/research
2
Savills Research | Sydney CBD Office
April 2015
Introduction
With 4.9 million square metres of total stock, the Sydney CBD is the largest office market in
Australia. Sydney is the primary location for the head offices of the majority of Australian
companies, it is also traditionally the most sought after; a fact highlighted by strong prime
property rents and yields.
The market is currently comprised of 53 percent prime grade space (Premium & A Grade)
and 47 percent secondary grade space (B, C & D Grades). Over the last decade the
proportion of prime grade space has increased from 41 percent, illustrating the nature of
development in the market.
Office Development
There is currently more than 400,000 square metres of new and refurbished stock in the
supply pipeline under construction and due to complete by the end of 2017, 60 percent of
which is already committed. Almost 90 percent of this supply is new space, with
construction underway at 5 Martin Place (30,300 square metres), and International Towers
T1 (101,000 square metres), T2 (89,000 square metres) and T3 (78,000 square metres) as
well as a number of smaller projects.
Gross supply over the next five years (2015-2019) is expected to total approximately
893,500 square metres; however, during the same period, 780,000 square metres of stock
will be withdrawn from market. Should all of these developments proceed as planned; this
will result in just 113,000 square metres of net additions in the Sydney CBD.
Current Sydney CBD Office Development Activity
Property
Precinct
NLA (sq m) Type
Status
Completion Major Tenant(s)
International Towers - T2
Western
89,000
New
Construction
2015
Westpac, Gilbert + Tobin
5 Martin Place
Core
30,322
New
Construction
2015
Ashurst, Challenger
20 Martin Pl
Core
18,000
Refurbishment
Construction
2015
International Towers - T3
Western
78,000
New
Construction
2016
KPMG, Lend Lease
190-200 George St
Core
37,672
New
Construction
2016
Ernst & Young
333 George St
Core
12,300
New
Construction
2016
International Towers - T1
Western
101,000
New
Construction
2017
The Ribbon (IMAX)
Western
38,000
New
DA Approved
2018
151 Clarence St
Western
21,000
New
DA Applied
2018
33 Bligh St
Core
21,000
New
DA Approved
2018
One Carrington
Core
60,000
Mooted
DA Applied
2019
5-17 Young & 20 Loftus St
Core
30,000
Mooted
DA Applied
2019
60 Martin Pl
Core
27,500
New
DA Applied
2019
182 George St & 33 Pitt St
Core
26,400
Mooted
Early Planning
2020
56-60 York St
Midtown
12,000
Mooted
DA Applied
2020
PwC, HSBC
ARUP
Source: Savills Research
savills.com.au/research
3
Savills Research | Sydney CBD Office
April 2015
The future net supply pipeline remains relatively constrained over the short to medium-term,
despite a number of large commercial towers commencing construction during the last 12
to 18 months. However, with almost 70 percent of this new stock already committed to,
there will be an increased amount of backfill space in the market over the medium-term.
That said, a large amount of that backfill space will be removed from the market for shortterm refurbishment, medium-term redevelopment or removed from the office market
altogether for conversion to residential or hotel uses.
There are a number of buildings within the Sydney CBD that have been earmarked to be
withdrawn from the market for conversion to residential or hotel use over the next three
years. The potential future withdrawals over the next decade adds up to more than 272,000
square metres and would shrink the current size of the Sydney CBD by 5.5 percent. The
resultant spill of tenants, which totals approximately 240,000 square metres, would place
considerable downward pressure on the overall vacancy rate.
Sydney Office
CBD Forecast Gross Office Supply by Type (sq m)
2015 to 2024
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2015
2016
2017
2018
Precommitment
New
2019
2020
Mooted
2021
Refurb
2022
2023
2024
Backfill
Source: Savills Research
The bulk of the future supply pipeline is expected to be delivered by the Barangaroo project
located at East Darling Harbour, with three commercial buildings known as International
Towers Sydney T1, T2 and T3. According to the latest information available, the project is
valued at over $6 billion. Barangaroo is Sydney's largest redevelopment project this century
and will evolve over the next 10 to 20 years, injecting more than $1.5 billion into the NSW
economy annually.
The first of these towers (T2 – approx. 89,000 square metres) is almost 80 percent
precommitted and due to complete in late 2015, this will be closely followed by T3 (approx.
78,000 square metres) which is 77 percent precommitted and due in early 2016. The final,
and at approx. 101,000 square metres the largest, building is known as T1. This building is
currently only 34 percent precommitted and is due to be delivered to the market in early
2017.
savills.com.au/research
4
Savills Research | Sydney CBD Office
April 2015
Leasing Activity
In the 12 months to March 2015, Savills identified 268,004 square metres of leasing activity
in the Sydney CBD. This is up 2 percent on the 12 months prior, and down on the five year
average (295,506 square metres). The majority of these leases (approximately 35 percent of
space) occurred in the Western precinct.
Select Sydney CBD Office Leases to March 2015
Date
Property
Jan-15
201 Sussex St, Sydney
33,000
na
Feb-15
60 Castlereagh St, Sydney
3,531
540 N
University of Newcastle
Feb-15
2 Market St, Sydney
2,270
785 G
iiNet
Feb-15
9 Hunter St, Sydney
994
665 G
Empired Ltd
Feb-15
24 York St, Sydney
830
710 N
IMED
Mar-15
201 Elizabeth St, Sydney
3,456
na
Mar-15
1 Bligh St, Sydney
1,115
976 N
Holman Fenwick Willan
Mar-15
37 Pitt St, Sydney
775
570 G
Australian Credit and Finance
Mar-15
9 Castlereagh St, Sydney
674
575 N
LJ Hooker
Mar-15
264-278 George St, Sydney
1,032
913 G
State Water*
Source: Savills Research
na = not currently available
In a boost to recent leasing
activity, it was announced
during the March 2015 quarter
that IAG would be taking up
33,000 square metres of space
at Darling Park 2, 201 Sussex
Street. Whilst the lease is not
due to commence until early
2018, the deal removes a
significant chunk of future
vacancy for the Western
precinct.
Other deals of note during the
quarter include; the University
of Newcastle (3,531 square
metres) at 60 Castlereagh
Street, and iiNet (2,270 square
metres) at 2 Market Street.
NLA (sq m)
Rent ($/sq m) Tenant
IAG
Campaign Monitor
*Sublease **Renewal ***Assignment
Sydney Office
CBD Net Absorption (sq m)
Dec-04 to Dec-14
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
-50,000
-100,000
-150,000
-200,000
Total Absorption (sq m)
Linear (Total Absorption (sq m))
Net absorption totalling 78,262 square metres was recorded for the 12 months to
December 2014, representing 1.6 percent of the Sydney CBD market. This is a vast
improvement 6,305 square metres of absorption recorded in the prior 12 month period.
Despite soft leasing conditions in the market, the opposite is true for levels of enquiry. An
increase in the availability of space, coupled with high market incentives, has brought
tenants into the market much earlier than usual. As a result there has been a record level of
enquiry throughout 2014. Given the lag between enquiry and leasing transactions, Savills
expects an uptick in leasing activity in the next 12-18 months.
savills.com.au/research
5
Savills Research | Sydney CBD Office
April 2015
Of the 268,004 square metres leased in Sydney CBD in the last 12 months, the 'Finance
and Insurance' sector was the dominant sector, leasing 38 percent of the stock, or 101,662
square metres. Similarly, the largest number of transactions was through the 'Finance and
Insurance' sector with 31 transactions.
Demand from the ‘Finance and Insurance’ and the ‘Property and Business Services’
sectors, which make up the majority of tenants in Sydney, continues to underpin leasing
activity in the market. The two sectors combined accounted for 65 percent of leases signed
during the last 12 months totalling approximately 174,000 square metres.
W'Sale, Retail
0%
Sydney Office
Total Reported Leased in Sydney CBD (%)
12 months to Mar-15
Undisclosed
0%
Property &
Business Services
27%
Govt & Community
11%
Recreational
Services
2%
Mining & Utilities &
Industry
6%
Finance and
Insurance
38%
IT &
Communication
16%
Source: Savills Research
Net face rents in the Sydney CBD as at March 2015 typically range from $600 to $850 per
square metre per annum for A Grade buildings, and between $450 and $585 per square
metre per annum for secondary grade buildings. The average A Grade face rent is $725 per
square metre per annum, with no change being recorded over the last 12 months.
Following on from aggressive growth in market incentives over the last five or so years, a
period in which the average A Grade gross incentives were as low as 12.5 percent in
December 2007, there has been a stabilisation of incentives recorded over the last 18
months. Given the current level of tenant demand in the market, the recent drop in vacancy
rates and the low level of net supply, Savills expects the current level of A Grade incentives
at ~32 percent to come under downward pressure over the medium-term.
The current lease expiry profile for the Sydney CBD indicates that 960,000 square metres of
leases will expire between 2015 and the end of 2017. However, given that a number of large
space users have already committed to new developments due to complete in the next
three years, the resultant backfill space has the potential to place upward pressure on the
overall vacancy rate, although this will be tempered by withdrawals of office buildings for
redevelopment.
savills.com.au/research
6
Savills Research | Sydney CBD Office
April 2015
Vacancy
According to the latest PCA figures, the current composition of the market is as follows:
Sydney CBD Vacancy Rates – December 2014
Grade
Stock (sq m)
Vacancy (sq m)
Vac % Dec-14
Vac % Dec-13
Premium
793,963
56,808
7.2
9.9
A Grade
1,835,294
146,417
8.0
9.8
B Grade
1,576,404
115,521
7.3
8.3
C Grade
563,308
37,341
6.6
7.8
192,759
13,533
7.0
6.7
4,961,728
369,620
7.4
9.0
D Grade
Total
Source: PCA / Savills Research
The latest PCA Office Market Report indicates that the overall vacancy rate in the Sydney
CBD decreased to 7.4 percent in the 12 months to December 2014. As the above table
demonstrates, vacancy rates throughout the Sydney CBD by grade have dramatically
decreased over the last 12 months. Indeed, with the exception of the D grade stock,
vacancy across all grades decreased by at least 1 percentage point and even by as much
as 2.7 percentage points for Premium.
Sublease vacancy, often the barometer by which the relative health of an office market is
measured, remained stable at an almost negligible 0.5 percent (22,582 square metres).
Sydney Office
CBD Vacancy by Grade (%)
Dec-04 to Dec-14
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Prime Vacancy
Secondary Vacancy
Total Vacancy
The latest PCA release indicates that there is currently 22,582 square metres of sublease
availability in the Sydney CBD market, down from 38,736 square metres in December 2013.
This is the result of ‘Prime’ (that is Premium and A Grade blended) sublease vacancy
decreasing by 22,106 square metres over the last 12 months. The decrease in sublease
vacancy has been mainly driven by leasing activity as well as tenants resuming control of
the space. In a few cases it has been the result of leases expiring and sublease availability
reverting to direct vacancy.
Should the withdrawal of office stock for conversion, as mentioned on page 4 of this report,
proceed as planned, the spill of tenants into the market will place considerable downward
pressure on the Sydney CBD vacancy rate.
savills.com.au/research
8
Savills Research | Sydney CBD Office
April 2015
Full Floor Availability
The Savills Prime Full Floor Availability Report assesses the state of the leasing market in a
different manner to standard vacancy surveys. The report shows each Premium and A
Grade building in the city on a floor-by-floor basis highlighting which floors are available for
lease, now and in the near future, including those under construction and refurbishment.
Sydney CBD Prime Full Floor Availability – February 2015
By Grade
By Precinct
By Grade
Total
Premium
A Grade
Core
Midtown
Southern
Western
W.B / Rocks
Total Prime Floors
2,297
636
1,661
1,088
501
598
92
18
3,168,818
1,021,486
2,147,333
1,321,917
705,759
992,789
127,306
21,048
319
110
209
154
65
90
3
7
460,379
196,627
263,752
186,750
96,135
166,261
3,909
7,325
14.5
19.2
12.3
14.1
13.6
16.7
3.1
34.8
Max Contiguous Floors (no)
17
14
17
17
13
15
2
6
Max Contiguous Area (sq m)
34,238
34,238
27,135
22,281
23,309
34,238
2,606
7,121
Total Prime NLA (sq m)
Prime Floors Available (no)
Prime Full Floor Availability (sq m)
Prime Full Floor Availability (%)
Source: Savills Research
*numbers may not add up due to rounding
The February 2015 Sydney Prime Full Floor Availability Report currently shows that 204 full
floors are available in the next 12 months, and that 319 floors are available in total, which
includes future development and existing refurbishments.
The dramatic increase in available floors in over the second half of 2014 was due to the
addition of four buildings to the report. Most notable was the addition of 20 Martin Place
and 333 George Street, both of which are under construction and added a combined 34
vacant floors to the Full Floor Report. A further five vacant floors were added through the
inclusion of 155 Clarence Street.
Sydney Office
Prime Full Floors Available (No)
Sep-13 to Feb-15
360
340
320
319
325
343
320
326
289
301
300
281
283
290
293
310
317
301
304
260
307
280
313
300
240
220
Adding to this are a number of tenants who are taking advantage of ‘efficiency dividends’
by relocating to buildings with larger floor plates. As a result the number of available floors
increases but the amount of occupied stock in square metres remains the same.
The current level of prime full floor availability is sitting above the long-term average, as
there are a number of backfill floors currently available in the Sydney CBD market. Savills
expect the number of available floors to remain at cyclical highs over the coming months as
new developments are added to the full floor report which are only partially committed.
savills.com.au/research
9
Savills Research | Sydney CBD Office
April 2015
Sales Activity
Savills have recorded approximately $4.5 billion of office transactions in the 12 months to
March 2015 in the Sydney CBD. This is up 55 percent from $2.9 billion in the previous 12
months, and up on the five year average of $2.5 billion. During the same period 43
properties were sold, up on the prior 12 months (39), and up on the five year average of 30.
Select Sydney CBD Office Sales to March 2015
Date
Property
Jan-15
19-31 Pitt St, Sydney
Price ($m)
NLA
(sq m)
Price
$/sq m
Yield (%)
73.00
5,561
13,127
na
^
Feb-15
161 Castlereagh St, Sydney (25%)
240.00
59,427
16,154
Feb-15
130 Elizabeth St, Sydney
121.30
9,839
12,328
na
Feb-15
92 Pitt St, Sydney
30.63
4,598
6,661
8.02*
Mar-15
309 George St, Sydney
112.30
9,044
12,417
6.00
Source: Savills Research
na = not currently available *equated yield
5.76*
^ represents 100 percent of NLA
Almost $1.5 billion of investment has been made by Foreign Investors throughout the
Sydney CBD in the last 12 months who are looking to convert office buildings to residential,
serviced apartment or hotel uses. This trend has also been repeated outside of the Sydney
CBD market; most notably the Lower North Shore Office market. As a result of the
continued interest in secondary grade office towers in the Sydney CBD market by Foreign
Investors seeking such conversions, average B grade yields have once again tightened over
the last quarter by 25 basis points, and now range between 6.75% and 8.25%.
Sydney Office
CBD Office Sales ($m and number)
(>$5m) Mar-05 to Mar-15
$5,000
50
$4,500
45
$4,000
40
$3,500
35
$3,000
30
$2,500
25
$2,000
20
$1,500
15
$1,000
10
$500
5
$0
0
Sales > $5m (LHS)
Sales No (RHS)
In what was a slow start to the year, the standout transaction of the March 2015 quarter
was the purchase of a 25 percent share of Liberty Place, 161 Castlereagh Street by
Blackstone Real Estate Asia from LaSalle Investment Management for a reported $240
million. Liberty Place is Sydney CBDs newest ‘Premium’ building having only competed
construction in early 2013. The sale represented an initial yield of just under 5.50%, and the
building benefits from a WALE in excess of 10 years.
savills.com.au/research
10
Savills Research | Sydney CBD Office
The 'Foreign Investor'
purchaser category was the
most active in the investment
market in the 12 months to
March 2015, purchasing 60
percent of the stock sold (or
$2705 million worth of CBD
transactions). Similarly the
'Foreign Investor' category had
the most transactions (20).
Australian Institutional
Investors were net sellers in the
Sydney CBD market in the last
12 months. Indeed, in the 12
months to March 2015 these
types of investors were net
sellers by $1.5 billion. This is
the fourth consecutive year in
which they sold more assets
than they purchased, totalling
almost $2.9 billion.
April 2015
Sydney Office
CBD Office Sales Buyer Profile (%)
12 months to Mar-15
Mortgagee
Government
0%0%
Foreign Investor
60%
Undisclosed
0%
Developer
2%
Private Investor
5%
Fund
19%
Owner Occupier
1%
Syndicate
1%
Trust
12%
Source: Savills Research
Capital values in the Sydney CBD as at March 2015 are estimated to range from $8,571 to
$14,167 per square metre for A Grade buildings, and between $5,455 and $8,667 per
square metre for secondary grade buildings. Average capital values for A Grade properties
are $11,154 per square metre, a 3.8 percent increase over the last 12 months.
Market yields in the Sydney CBD as at March 2015 are estimated to range between 6.00%
and 7.00% for A Grade buildings, and between 6.75% and 8.25% for secondary grade
buildings. The average yield for A Grade office buildings in the quarter to March 2015 is
6.50%, a 25 basis point firming over the last 12 months.
Key Market Indicators – March 2015
Premium
A Grade
B Grade
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Rental - Gross Face ($/sq m)
970
1,505
730
1,020
550
730
Rental - Net Face ($/sq m)
785
1,300
600
850
450
585
Rental - Net Effective ($/sq m)
513
803
396
493
313
366
Outgoings - operating ($/sq m)
130
140
80
105
70
85
Outgoings - statutory ($/sq m)
55
65
50
65
30
60
Outgoings - total ($/sq m)
185
205
130
170
100
145
8
10
7
10
4
7
Yield - Market (% Net Face Rental)
5.50
6.00
6.00
7.00
6.75
8.25
IRR (%)
7.50
8.00
8.00
8.75
8.25
9.25
Cars Permanent Reserved ($/pcm)
800
1,000
650
850
550
650
Cars Permanent ($/pcm) 750
800
600
700
500
600
13,083
23,636
8,571
14,167
5,455
8,667
Typical Lease Term
Office Capital Values ($/sq m)
Source: Savills Research
Rental rates reflect single, whole floor, net effective and mid-rise rental rates unless specifically
otherwise stated. Discounts and premiums exist for low and high rise space and for significant
occupiers.
savills.com.au/research
11
Savills Research | Sydney CBD Office
April 2015
Outlook
The greater Sydney economy grew by 4.3 percent during FY 2013/14, this is the fastest rate
in well over a decade, with output reaching $353 billion; almost a quarter of Australia’s
GDP. The majority if this growth was directly attributable to the finance and insurance
sector, with healthy contributions from professional services, manufacturing, real estate
services and construction. Given that the tenancy profile of Sydney CBD is dominated by
most of these sectors; it necessarily follows that growth in these sectors can be expected
to translate into increased leasing activity over the short to medium-term.
Indicative market yields for A Grade stock in the Sydney CBD now average 25 basis points
lower than 12 months ago. Savills also recorded compression in indicative Premium yields
during the same timeframe, which now range between 5.50% and 6.00%, a firming of 50
basis points at either end of the range over the last 12 months.
The influence of overseas investors in the market continues to have a profound effect in
Sydney CBD, as evidenced by the high levels transactions over the last 12 months. Indeed,
the $4.5 billion of transactions over the last 12 months is the highest level of sales recorded
in the last decade.
Recent interest in secondary grade buildings with either residential upside and/or
redevelopment potential from both overseas and local investors has also created price
tension. There are currently a number of secondary grade assets in the market that are
earmarked for conversion to residential or hotel use.
This will combine with an increasing lease expiry profile for the Sydney CBD over the next
two years and the withdrawal of a number of commercial assets from the market that are
earmarked for conversion. As a result, Savills expect incentives to come under pressure
toward the end of this period.
The future net supply pipeline remains relatively constrained over the short to medium-term,
despite a number of large commercial towers commencing construction during the last 12
months. With almost three quarters of this new stock already committed to there will be a
significant amount of backfill space in the market over the medium-term. That said, a large
amount of that backfill space will be removed from the market for short-term refurbishment,
medium-term redevelopment or removed from the office market altogether for a change in
use.
Savills expect the recovery phase to continue over the coming year with moderate rental
growth over the medium-term as tenants in the Sydney CBD market start to feel the pinch
from a lack of supply.
savills.com.au/research
12
Savills Research | Sydney CBD Office
April 2015
Savills New South Wales Team
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valuation professionals, are
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respected along with Savills
Research teams across the
globe.
For our latest reports, contact one of the
team or visit savills.com.au/research
National Head of Research
Tony Crabb
+61 (0) 3 8686 8012
tcrabb@savills.com.au
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13
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connections and deep local knowledge
provides Savills with an almost
unparalleled ability to connect people
and property.
Savills extensive Asia Pacific network
spans 50 offices throughout Australia,
New Zealand, China, Hong Kong, India,
Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Macao,
Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines,
Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and
Vietnam.
Adelaide
Brisbane
Canberra
Gold Coast
Melbourne
Notting Hill
Parramatta
Perth
Sunshine Coast
Sydney
+61 (0) 8 8237 5000
+61 (0) 7 3221 8355
+61 (0) 2 6221 8200
+61 (0) 7 5509 1700
+61 (0) 3 8686 8000
+61 (0) 3 9554 5100
+61 (0) 2 9761 1333
+61 (0) 8 9488 4111
+61 (0) 7 5313 7500
+61 (0) 2 8215 8888
In Australia, we offer the full spectrum
of services from providing strategic
advice to managing assets and projects
and transacting deals. With a firmly
embedded corporate culture that
values initiative, innovation and
integrity, clients receive outstanding
service and can be assured of the
utmost professionalism.
Contact Savills for advice on
all aspects of property:
 Sales
 Leasing
 Valuations
 Asset Management
 Project Management
 Strategic Corporate Real Estate
 Property Accounting
 Facilities Management
 Residential Luxury Sales
 Residential Projects
 Research