1. finance
2. investing
3. stocks

Friday
October 17 2014
Morning Brief
Daily
IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index)
October 16
4951.61
Chg
-11.33 pts (-0.23%)
Volume (bn shares)
8.37
Value (IDR tn)
7.74
Adv 140 Dec 318 Unc 90 Untr 158
Indonesian Market Daily
Foreign Transaction
Buy
Sell
Net Buy (Sell)
Top Net Buy
BBNI
KLBF
BBTN
GGRM
CPIN
NB Val.
41.8
30.2
22.5
18.8
11.2
LQ-45 Index
Gainers
PTBA
ADHI
EXCL
KLBF
BBTN
(IDR bn)
4,405
-4,732
-327
Top Net Sell NS Val.
BBRI
160.4
TLKM
97.3
BMRI
96.5
ASII
73.9
BBCA
41.1
Top Gainers & Losers
Losers
%
AALI
-3.5%
TAXI
-3.0%
INDF
-2.5%
TBIG
-2.1%
TLKM
-1.8%
%
+5.3%
+5.0%
+4.1%
+4.0%
+3.6%
Government Bond Yield & FX
Tenor: 10 year
USD/IDR
KRW/IDR
Last
Chg.
8.3538%
12,260.00
11.56
-0.0362%
0.27%
0.48%
Global Indexes
Index
JCI - Intraday
JCI - daily charts
Indonesian Market Recap:
JCI ended slightly lower yesterday after gaining in regular session as global losses
influence. Top losers: Trade (-0.91%), Misc Ind (-0.62%), Agri (-0.56%).
Today’s Outlook
For today we expect JCI to move within support range 4920-4932 and resistance
range 4955-4981. Inverted hammer candlestick appeared below middle Bollinger
band. MACD is still moving downward with shortened negative histogram. RSI,
Stochastic, and William’s %R is slightly moving downward. We suggest to keep
cautious over global sentiment although domestic rally is in favor.
Global Market
United States
US market ended flat yesterday as worries over global growth and Ebola are balanced by better-than-expected US earnings and economic data.
Europe
European market closed lower yesterday as 10-year Greek bond yield rose to 8.9
percent.
Asia
Asian market closed lower yesterday after Yen became stronger; steel and real
estate sector decline in China.
Last
Chg.
%
Dow Jones
16,117.24
(24.50)
-0.15%
S&P 500
1,862.76
0.27
0.01%
Daily Recommendation (details on the next page)
Nasdaq
4,217.39
2.07
0.05%
Trading Buy: BBNI, SMRA, ELSA
FTSE 100
6,195.91
(15.73)
-0.25%
Daily News
CAC 40
3,918.62
(21.10)
-0.54%
DAX
8,582.90
10.95
0.13%
Nikkei
14,738.38
(335.14)
-2.22%
Hang Seng
22,900.94
(239.11)
-1.03%
BJTM
KAEF
BBTN
ANJT
S&P/ASX 200
5,254.89
9.28
0.18%
Supplements:
Jokowi’s inauguration preparation
European Update
CSI 300
2,444.40
(19.47)
-0.79%
KOSPI
1,918.83
(7.08)
-0.37%
Commodity Price
Commodity
: Third quarter profit grows 9.08 percent
: To have property business
: Still review to decline the lending rates
: Acquired the agriculture company in Papua
Indonesia Economic Data
Last
Chg.
%
Gold ($/troy oz.)
3.81
(1.12)
-0.09%
BI Rate
7.50%
7.50%
Real GDP
5.12%
5.22%
Crude Oil ($/bbl)
81.93
1.28
1.59%
FX Reserve (USD bn)
111.16
111.22
Current Acc (USD bn)
111.20
110.50
Gas ($/mmbtu)
3.81
0.00
0.00%
Trd Balance (USD bn)
-0.31
0.13
0.13
-0.28
Nickel LME ($/MT) 16,180
Monthly Indicator
Last
Prev.
3.00
0.02%
Exports Yoy
10.6%
-6.03%
Tin LME ($/MT)
19,722
(430.00)
-2.13%
Imports Yoy
13.7%
-19.30%
CPO (MYR/Ton)
2,120
(13.99)
-0.66%
Inflation Yoy
4.53.%
3.99%
PT Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia — Daily Morning Brief
Quarterly Indicator
Govt Spending
FDI
Business Confidence
Cons. Confidence
Last
Prev.
-6.03%
4.50%
-19.30%
0.50%
3.99%
4.53%
Page 11
Stocks Recommendation
BBNI
Analysis
Hanging man candlestick is crossing above
middle Bollinger band. Resistance target
5600 can be maintained supported by
stochastic increase.
Range
5425 - 5700
Action
Maintained buy as price above 5550
SMRA
Analysis
Shooting star candlestick is crossing above
middle Bollinger band, continuing its previous increase, supported by parabolic
SAR indicator increase.
Range
1170 - 1245
Action
Trading buy as price above 1200
ELSA
Analysis
Belt hold candlestick appeared above
lower Bollinger band. Bullish volume increase supported by William’s %R indicator increase.
Range
510 - 575
Action
Trading buy as price above 540
Daily News
BJTM : Third quarter profit grows 9.08 percent
PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Timur, Tbk recorded net
income IDR 742.89 billion in third quarter or grow 9.08
percent from same period last year. The director stated that
this profit growth is supported by credit growth from IDR
21.52 trillion to IDR 26.09 trillion. Largest credit came from
commercial credit that grow 28.76 percent. Asset and third
parties funds grow 20.24% and 24.54%. This financial
performance is supported by its network development.
KAEF
: To have property business
Pharmaeutical company, PT Kimia Farma, Tbk is planning to
have property business by building hotel in order to
maximize its asset. The company will build three hotels, two
in Bandung and one in Jakarta. This hotel will be integrated
with company’s pharmacies and clinics. The company is
targetting this property business ready to be operated in the
middle of next year.
BBTN : Still review to decline the lending rates
The hope that PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk
(BBTN) may reduce lending rates (mortgage) seems to have
to wait longer. Until now, BBTN still review its declining of
mortgage rates. Deposit rates have been lowered in line with
the appeal Financial Services Authority (OJK). Currently, the
deposit rate has been 9,75%. BBTN calculate the cost of fund
to see wether will there be a decrease in lending rates.
ANJT
: Acquired the agriculture company in Papua
PT Austindo Nusantara Jaya Tbk. (ANJT) acquired all of the
shares of PT Pusaka Agro Makmur (PAM), a company
engaged in the field of oil palm plantations in West Papua.
The acquisition of shares was held on 15 October 2014. ANJT
buy PAM from Wodi Kaifa Ltd. And PT. Pusaka Agro
Sejahtera. The transaction has a value of less than 20% of
equity so that the transaction is not a material transaction.
e2
Page 22
Stocks Technical Analysis
Ticker
Open
IHSG
4,933
High
4,976
Low
4,924
Close
4,951
Prev
∆%
4,962 -0.22%
S1
S2
S3
4,916
4,894
4,864
Pivot
4,946
R1
R2
R3
4,968
4,998
5,020
Target
YTD
(%)
PER
(x)
Spt
Rst
4,916
4,998 15.84%
16.16
20,900 -19.92%
10.09
Agriculture
AALI
20,500
20,600
20,000
20,100
20,825
-3.48%
20,000
19,700
19,400
20,300
20,600
20,900
21,200
20,000
LSIP
1,755
1,775
1,735
1,750
1,775
-1.41%
1,733
1,714
1,693
1,754
1,773
1,794
1,813
1,733
1,794
-9.33%
13.36
Mining
ADRO
930
980
920
965
940
2.66%
918
889
858
949
978
1,009
1,038
918
1,009 -11.47%
5.27
HRUM
1,585
1,635
1,555
1,610
1,595
0.94%
1,558
1,516
1,478
1,596
1,638
1,676
1,718
1,558
1,676 -41.45%
8.80
ITMG
19,500
20,500
19,350
20,125
19,700
2.16%
19,238
18,719
18,088
19,869
20,388
21,019
21,538
19,238
21,019 -29.39%
INCO
3,580
3,690
3,550
3,680
3,645
0.96%
3,560
3,485
3,420
3,625
3,700
3,765
3,840
3,560
3,765
38.87%
44.34
TINS
1,175
1,175
1,145
1,150
1,175
-2.13%
1,148
1,131
1,118
1,161
1,178
1,191
1,208
1,148
1,191
6.38%
16.67
5.18
Basic Industries
CPIN
3,830
4,025
3,800
3,965
3,860
2.72%
3,785
3,680
3,560
3,905
4,010
4,130
4,235
3,785
4,130
17.48%
24.63
MAIN
3,150
3,160
3,120
3,140
3,150
-0.32%
3,125
3,103
3,085
3,143
3,165
3,183
3,205
3,125
3,183
-1.10%
24.15
JPFA
1,170
1,195
1,150
1,185
1,170
1.28%
1,155
1,130
1,110
1,175
1,200
1,220
1,245
1,155
1,220
-2.87%
59.25
INTP
22,000
22,625
22,000
22,325
22,500
-0.78%
21,850
21,613
21,225
22,238
22,475
22,863
23,100
21,850
22,863
11.63%
18.19
SMCB
2,505
2,510
2,450
2,490
2,505
-0.60%
2,468
2,429
2,408
2,489
2,528
2,549
2,588
2,468
2,549
9.45%
14.73
SMGR
15,500
15,750
15,375
15,500
15,625
-0.80%
15,313
15,156
14,938
15,531
15,688
15,906
16,063
15,313
15,906
9.54%
17.63
WTON
1,110
1,175
1,090
1,155
1,110
4.05%
1,090
1,048
1,005
1,133
1,175
1,218
1,260
1,090
1,218
-
31.22
6,450
6,325
6,350
6,400
-0.78%
6,288
6,244
6,163
6,369
6,413
6,494
6,538
6,288
6,494
-6.62%
13.60
Misc. Industries
ASII
6,350
Consumer
AISA
2,205
2,245
2,155
2,215
2,205
0.45%
2,165
2,115
2,075
2,205
2,255
2,295
2,345
2,165
2,295
54.90%
16.53
ICBP
11,325
11,425
11,050
11,325
11,400
-0.66%
11,138
10,906
10,763
11,281
11,513
11,656
11,888
11,138
11,656
11.03%
23.99
INDF
6,950
6,975
6,825
6,825
7,000
-2.50%
6,813
6,744
6,663
6,894
6,963
7,044
7,113
6,813
7,044
3.41%
10.90
ROTI
1,090
1,090
1,080
1,090
1,090
0.00%
1,085
1,078
1,075
1,088
1,095
1,098
1,105
1,085
1,098
6.86%
22.71
59,000
60,150
57,950
57,950
58,325
-0.64%
57,375
56,563
55,175
58,763
59,575
60,963
61,775
57,375
60,963
37.98%
19.67
KLBF
1,610
1,675
1,600
1,670
1,605
4.05%
1,603
1,564
1,528
1,639
1,678
1,714
1,753
1,603
1,714
33.60%
39.76
UNVR
31,000
31,450
30,725
30,925
31,100
-0.56%
30,600
30,300
29,875
31,025
31,325
31,750
32,050
30,600
31,750
18.94%
43.37
ASRI
436
442
434
440
438
0.46%
434
430
426
438
442
446
450
434
446
2.33%
6.98
BEST
540
550
525
545
540
0.93%
530
515
505
540
555
565
580
530
565
22.47%
14.34
BSDE
1,460
1,505
1,460
1,495
1,475
1.36%
1,455
1,435
1,410
1,480
1,500
1,525
1,545
1,455
1,525
15.89%
14.10
CTRA
990
1,025
990
1,010
1,000
1.00%
983
969
948
1,004
1,018
1,039
1,053
983
1,039
34.67%
16.83
CTRP
710
720
690
720
710
1.41%
700
680
670
710
730
740
760
700
740
16.13%
36.00
LPKR
970
980
960
975
970
0.52%
963
951
943
971
983
991
1,003
963
991
7.14%
16.53
PWON
399
406
396
401
403
-0.50%
395
391
385
401
405
411
415
395
411
48.52%
11.79
ADHI
2,550
2,735
2,545
2,705
2,575
5.05%
2,533
2,444
2,343
2,634
2,723
2,824
2,913
2,533
2,824
79.14%
75.14
PTPP
2,360
2,435
2,340
2,395
2,375
0.84%
2,330
2,288
2,235
2,383
2,425
2,478
2,520
2,330
2,478 106.47%
46.96
TOTL
915
930
820
915
915
0.00%
860
785
750
895
970
1,005
1,080
860
1,005
83.00%
20.80
WIKA
2,745
2,840
2,730
2,800
2,760
1.45%
2,718
2,669
2,608
2,779
2,828
2,889
2,938
2,718
2,889
77.22%
25.69
WSKT
870
905
870
900
875
2.86%
868
851
833
886
903
921
938
868
GGRM
Property
921 122.22% 300.00
Infrastructure
EXCL
5,575
5,825
5,550
5,775
5,550
4.05%
5,538
5,406
5,263
5,681
5,813
5,956
6,088
5,538
5,956
11.06%
TLKM
2,815
2,850
2,805
2,805
2,855
-1.75%
2,788
2,774
2,743
2,819
2,833
2,864
2,878
2,788
2,864
30.47%
19.34
PGAS
JSMR
Finance
BBCA
BBNI
BBRI
BBTN
BMRI
Trade
AKRA
UNTR
ACES
ERAA
LPPF
MPPA
TELE
SCMA
BHIT
BMTR
5,775
5,850
5,875
6,000
5,775
5,825
5,800
5,950
5,800
5,975
0.00%
-0.42%
5,738
5,813
5,706
5,731
5,638
5,638
5,806
5,906
5,838
5,988
5,906
6,081
5,938
6,163
5,738
5,813
5,906
6,081
29.61%
25.93%
17.42
26.92
12,600
5,500
10,250
1,100
9,550
12,750
5,600
10,375
1,160
9,700
12,600
5,450
10,125
1,095
9,500
12,600
5,600
10,225
1,150
9,650
12,675
5,525
10,350
1,110
9,650
-0.59%
1.36%
-1.21%
3.60%
0.00%
12,525
5,475
10,113
1,093
9,500
12,488
5,388
9,994
1,061
9,400
12,375
5,325
9,863
1,028
9,300
12,638
5,538
10,244
1,126
9,600
12,675
5,625
10,363
1,158
9,700
12,788
5,688
10,494
1,191
9,800
12,825
5,775
10,613
1,223
9,900
12,525
5,475
10,113
1,093
9,500
12,788
5,688
10,494
1,191
9,800
31.25%
41.77%
41.03%
32.18%
22.93%
21.18
10.92
10.63
8.91
11.43
4,780
16,725
825
985
14,575
3,020
925
3,485
339
1,795
4,880
17,475
825
1,030
15,200
3,070
930
3,515
344
1,840
4,745
16,700
815
975
14,300
2,895
920
3,400
332
1,780
4,880
17,175
815
1,015
14,900
2,905
930
3,465
334
1,830
4,805
17,200
825
985
14,900
3,020
925
3,500
339
1,810
1.56%
-0.15%
-1.21%
3.05%
0.00%
-3.81%
0.54%
-1.00%
-1.47%
1.10%
4,763
16,563
815
973
14,288
2,875
923
3,418
331
1,783
4,686
16,244
810
946
13,844
2,798
916
3,351
325
1,751
4,628
15,788
805
918
13,388
2,700
913
3,303
319
1,723
4,821
17,019
820
1,001
14,744
2,973
926
3,466
337
1,811
4,898
17,338
825
1,028
15,188
3,050
933
3,533
343
1,843
4,956
17,794
830
1,056
15,644
3,148
936
3,581
349
1,871
5,033
18,113
835
1,083
16,088
3,225
943
3,648
355
1,903
4,763
16,563
815
973
14,288
2,875
923
3,418
331
1,783
4,956
17,794
830
1,056
15,644
3,148
936
3,581
349
1,871
11.54%
-9.61%
38.14%
1.50%
35.45%
49.74%
50.00%
32.00%
-1.76%
-3.68%
26.38
10.16
25.47
9.23
88.17
76.45
24.47
39.83
7.77
21.28
e3
32.44
Page 33
Global Economic Calendar
Date
Country
Hour
Event
Jakarta
Tentative Trade Balance (in USD bn)
Period
Actual
m/m
Sep
31.0
Consensus
41.2
Prev
Monday
13-Oct
CHN
49.8
Tuesday
14-Oct
AUS
GBR
GER
Europe
7:30 AM
3:30 PM
4:00 PM
4:00 PM
NAB Business Confidence
CPI
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Industrial Production
Index
y/y
Index
m/m
Sep
Sep
Oct
Aug
5
1.2%
-3.6
-1.8%
1.4%
0.2
-1.5%
7
1.50%
6.9
0.90%
Wednesday
15-Oct
CHN
GBR
GBR
USA
USA
USA
USA
8:30 AM
3:30 PM
3:30 PM
7:30 PM
7:30 PM
7:30 PM
7:30 PM
CPI
Average Earnings Index
Claimant Count Change (in '000)
Core Retail Sales
PPI
Retail Sales
Empire State Manufacturing Index
y/y
3m/y
m/m
m/m
m/m
m/m
Index
Sep
Aug
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Oct
1.6%
0.7%
-18.6
-0.2%
-0.1%
-0.3%
6.2
1.7%
0.7%
-34.2
0.2%
0.1%
-0.1%
20.3
2.00%
0.60%
-37.2
0.30%
0.00%
0.60%
27.5
Thursday
16-Oct
USA
USA
USA
1:00 AM The Fed - Beige Book
7:30 PM Unemployment Claims (in ‘000)
9:00 PM Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
w/w
Index
w1 Oct
Oct
264
20.7
286
19.9
287
22.5
Friday
16-Oct
USA
USA
USA
7:30 PM Building Permits (in mn)
7:30 PM Housing Starts (in mn)
7:30 PM Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
m/m
m/m
Index
Sep
Sep
Oct
1
0.96
Supplement: Global & Local Events
Jokowi’s inauguration preparation
Head of the Regional Bureau Chief and Foreign Relations Jakarta administration said that Joko Widodo has removed his post as
Governor of Jakarta yesterday, October 16, 2014. On the other hand, the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) and the Indonesian
National Police (Police) alerting about 24,000 personnel to secure the inauguration of the president and vice president-elect,
Joko Widodo-Kalla, on Monday (20/10/2014). Police will deploy around 20,000 military personnel and around 4,400 personnel
to secure the inauguration. For securing the coupling of inauguration and swearing-elected president, they have prepared
24.815 personnel.
European Update
Just last month, Europe’s stocks were trading near their highest levels in six years, with optimism spreading that central-bank
stimulus would ignite the economy. Much has changed. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index plunged the most in almost three years
yesterday, closing down 11% from its June high to meet the definition of a correction. Europe is leading a rout that has wiped
more than $5.5 trillion from the value of equities worldwide. While data on everything from industrial production in Germany
to manufacturing in the U.K. has contributed to the gloom, sentiment began souring on Oct. 2, when European Central Bank
President Mario Draghi stopped short of spelling out how many assets the ECB might buy to head off deflation.
e4
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Research Team:
Reza Priyambada
reza@woorisec.com
Bagus Permadi
bagus@woorisec.com
Agustini Hamid
agustini.hamid@woorisec.com
Hendrik Panca
hendrik.panca@woorisec.com
Raphon Prima
raphon@woorisec.com
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