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Company Update, 7 November 2014
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
Buy (Maintained)
Energy & Petrochemicals - Downstream Products
Market Cap: USD8,207m
Target Price:
Price:
THB70.70
THB59.80
Macro
Risks
3Q14 Net Profit Rises 25% QoQ
Growth
Value
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)
84.0
118
79.0
108
74.0
98
69.0
88
64.0
78
59.0
68
54.0
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
58

Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Source: Bloomberg
Avg Turnover (THB/USD)
Cons. Upside (%)
Upside (%)
52-wk Price low/high (THB)
Free float (%)
Share outstanding (m)
Shareholders (%)
PTT Plc.
Thai NVDR
HSBC (Singapore) Nominees
PTE LTD
612m/19.0m
27.1
18.4
56.8 - 80.0
51
4,509
48.9
7.2
2.8
Absolute
Relative
YTD
1m
3m
6m
12m
(24.4)
3.0
(8.8)
(14.3)
(24.6)
(34.5)
(45.9)

Major commodity prices and spreads moved in line with our
expectations. Refined product spreads were mixed, as fuel oil and jet
spreads improved, while all refineries under our coverage recorded stock
losses as crude oil prices dipped in 3Q14. Olefins and polymer spreads
improved on higher product prices and lower feedstock costs.
Meanwhile, aromatics spreads also improved over the past quarter with
paraxylene (PX) prices having bottomed out in 2Q14.
3Q14 net profit came in at THB7.5bn (+25% QoQ, -21% YoY), in line
with our expectations. PTT Global Chemical’s (PTTGC) refinery ran at a
102% utilization rate. It booked a stock loss of USD2.92/barrel (bbl), with
hedging gains of USD0.70/bbl and a gross refining margin of
USD3.83/bbl. Its polyethylene plants ran at a 104% utilization rate, while
olefins spreads improved over the past quarter. Meanwhile, the
company’s aromatics plants ran at a 83% utilization rate, with PX
spreads rebounding from their lows in 2Q14 and benzene spreads
remaining strong. Note that in 2Q14, PTTGC recognized an impairment
loss of THB2.2bn as a result of business restructuring.
4Q14F outlook: olefins spreads at 2-year high. We expect its core
earnings to be healthy in 4Q14. However, whether PTTGC will report
further stock losses/gains will depend on the closing price of crude oil at
the end of the year. We expect its plants to run at full capacity in the final
quarter of the year. The latest commodity prices indicate that polymer
spreads are now at 2-year highs. This is a result of lower feedstock
prices – crude oil (USD83.99/bbl, -17% QoQ), condensate (USD724/ton,
-17% QoQ) and naphtha (-21% QoQ) – while product prices have so far
remained stable and strong.
Forecasts and Valuations
Share Performance (%)
0.8
(12.4)
(26.6)
Shariah compliant
Kannika Siamwalla, CFA 66 2862 9744
kannika.si@rhbgroup.com
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13F
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
500,305
565,617
552,881
527,437
539,554
Reported net profit (THBm)
30,033
34,001
33,277
27,304
36,191
Recurring net profit (THBm)
30,033
34,001
33,277
29,242
36,191
Recurring net profit growth (%)
84.0
13.2
(2.1)
(12.1)
23.8
Recurring EPS (THB)
6.65
7.54
7.38
6.49
8.03
DPS (THB)
2.33
3.40
3.33
2.73
3.62
Recurring P/E (x)
8.98
7.93
8.10
9.21
7.44
P/B (x)
1.36
1.21
1.13
1.13
1.04
P/CF (x)
9.76
5.33
7.29
4.95
4.79
3.9
5.7
5.6
4.6
6.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
7.23
6.59
6.20
6.01
5.03
Return on average equity (%)
14.3
16.2
14.4
11.4
14.5
Net debt to equity (%)
46.8
32.3
32.2
37.5
27.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total turnover (THBm)
Dividend Yield (%)
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report


2

.
3
0
.
1
0
0
.
2
0
0
PTTGC booked 3Q14 earnings of THB7.5bn (+25% QoQ, -21% YoY), and .
0
a THB2.8bn stock loss. Major commodity spreads moved in line with 0
our expectations, and olefins and aromatics spreads improved in 3Q. 0
PTTGC is now trading at distressed levels (-2SD from its forward 1.1x
P/BV) but is still attractive vis-a-vis the regional peer average, as it has
a much lower P/E, and higher ROE and ROA – even though its P/BV is
slightly higher. BUY, with a THB70.70 TP (1.2x 2015 P/BV,18.4% upside).

Nov-13
Vol m
Price Close




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1
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
7 November 2014
Figure 1: 3Q14/9M14 results review
FYE Dec (THBm)
3Q13
2Q14
3Q14
% QoQ
% YoY
9M13
9M14
% YoY
FY14F
% of FY14F
142,311
153,282
146,676
-4
3
397,268
447,324
13
527,437
85
11,723
8,578
8,932
4
-24
31,473
24,973
-21
40,846
61
8%
6%
6%
23%
17%
Net interest
(1,144)
(1,303)
(1,364)
5
19
(3,769)
(4,099)
9
(5,570)
74
Pretax profit
10,357
7,274
7,839
8
-24
27,358
21,370
-22
35,276
61
7%
5%
5%
20%
14%
(1,419)
(1,493)
-1%
-22%
Turnover
EBIT
EBIT margin (%)
Pretax margin (%)
Taxation
(708)
(599)
(521)
-7%
-8%
-8%
Associate income
(54)
290
240
-17
-547
(93)
770
-926
(1,500)
(51)
9,610
6,086
7,591
25
-21
26,088
19,972
-23
27,304
73
7%
4%
5%
19%
13%
2.13
1.35
1.68
5.79
4.43
Net margin (%)
EPS (THB)
25
-26
7%
Tax rate (%)
Net profit
-13
8%
-21
5
(4,233)
35
-12%
5%
-23
6.05
73
Source: RHB
Figure 2: Crude oil price (USD/bbl)
Figure 3: Refined product spreads
Source: Bloomberg
Source: PTTGC
See important disclosures at the end of this report
2
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
7 November 2014
Figure 4: PTTGC’s forward P/BV band
Source: Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
3
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
7 November 2014
Financial Exhibits
Profit & Loss (THBm)
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13F
Dec-14F
Total turnover
500,305
565,617
552,881
527,437
539,554
Cost of sales
(453,385)
(516,497)
(500,673)
(475,839)
(480,900)
Gross profit
46,920
49,120
52,208
51,597
58,654
Gen & admin expenses
(9,125)
(12,005)
(14,031)
(10,752)
(10,994)
Operating profit
37,795
37,116
38,177
40,846
47,660
Operating EBITDA
51,403
53,930
54,914
58,781
66,385
(13,608)
(16,815)
(16,737)
(17,935)
(18,724)
37,795
37,116
38,177
40,846
47,660
(1,500)
(1,500)
Depreciation of fixed assets
Operating EBIT
Net income from investments
Other recurring income
-
(44)
(78)
Dec-15F
3,180
4,292
4,124
-
-
Interest expense
(5,575)
(6,320)
(6,084)
(5,570)
(4,829)
Exchange gains
(724)
-
(1,322)
-
-
-
-
(2,239)
-
Pre-tax profit
34,676
35,865
34,817
31,537
41,331
Taxation
(3,102)
(1,416)
(1,976)
(4,233)
(5,140)
Minority interests
(1,541)
(448)
Profit after tax & minorities
30,033
34,001
Reported net profit
30,033
Recurring net profit
30,033
Cash flow (THBm)
Operating profit
Depreciation & amortisation
Exceptional income - net
821
436
-
-
33,277
27,304
36,191
34,001
33,277
27,304
36,191
34,001
33,277
29,242
36,191
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13F
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
37,795
37,116
38,177
40,846
47,660
13,608
16,815
16,737
17,935
18,724
(15,087)
4,337
(9,908)
5,411
Operating cash flow
36,316
58,267
45,006
64,191
66,218
Interest paid
(5,575)
(6,320)
(6,084)
(5,570)
(4,829)
Tax paid
(3,102)
(1,416)
(1,976)
(4,233)
(5,140)
Cash flow from operations
27,639
50,531
36,946
54,388
56,249
Capex
34,936
(25,036)
(6,966)
(37,528)
(18,360)
Source: Company data, RHB
Change in working capital
Other new investments
Other investing cash flow
Cash flow from investing activities
(106)
754
(51)
369
(167)
(101)
9,468
(13,774)
(12,481)
(13,139)
(5,499)
44,298
(38,056)
(19,498)
(50,297)
(23,960)
Dividends paid
(10,512)
(10,512)
(15,332)
(14,975)
(12,287)
Proceeds from issue of shares
(52,153)
120
Increase in debt
(10,610)
9,391
Other financing cash flow
(13,480)
(1)
5,076
(13,531)
-
-
-
(73,275)
(1,001)
(28,812)
(9,900)
(25,818)
Cash at beginning of period
21,035
18,973
31,269
18,582
10,534
Total cash generated
(1,338)
11,475
(11,365)
(5,809)
6,471
(724)
821
(1,322)
-
-
18,582
12,773
17,005
Cash flow from financing activities
Forex effects
Implied cash at end of period
18,973
31,269
(0)
0
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
4
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
7 November 2014
Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (THBm)
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13F
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Total cash and equivalents
22,606
60,062
44,384
36,336
42,806
Inventories
36,145
41,047
50,238
50,238
50,238
Accounts receivable
42,027
55,406
61,592
49,959
51,107
Other current assets
4,459
4,377
4,301
4,777
4,886
105,236
160,891
160,514
141,309
149,037
Total current assets
Total investments
Tangible fixed assets
Total other assets
6,505
7,978
14,029
14,475
14,475
255,758
262,479
253,054
272,201
271,837
5,468
4,714
4,765
4,396
4,497
Total non-current assets
267,730
275,171
271,848
291,072
290,809
Total assets
372,966
436,062
432,363
432,381
439,846
Short-term debt
22,064
16,404
27,564
24,400
19,269
Accounts payable
30,331
50,813
53,455
47,469
48,560
7,674
2,427
2,188
2,427
2,427
Total current liabilities
60,068
69,645
83,207
74,296
70,256
Total long-term debt
98,102
120,452
95,812
104,052
95,652
6,343
7,920
8,110
8,110
8,110
Total non-current liabilities
104,445
128,372
103,922
112,162
103,762
Total liabilities
164,513
198,017
187,129
186,458
174,018
45,108
45,088
45,088
45,088
45,088
116,556
140,366
156,436
157,126
177,031
Other current liabilities
Other liabilities
Share capital
Retained earnings reserve
Other reserves
Shareholders' equity
Minority interests
36,839
36,978
36,978
36,978
36,978
198,503
222,433
238,503
239,192
259,097
9,950
15,612
6,731
6,731
6,731
Total equity
208,454
238,045
245,234
245,923
265,828
Total liabilities & equity
372,966
436,062
432,363
432,381
439,846
Dec-15F
Source: Company data, RHB
Key Ratios (THB)
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13F
Dec-14F
Revenue growth (%)
33.3
13.1
(2.3)
(4.6)
2.3
Operating profit growth (%)
82.4
(1.8)
2.9
7.0
16.7
Net profit growth (%)
84.0
13.2
(2.1)
(18.0)
32.6
EPS growth (%)
84.2
13.3
(2.1)
(18.0)
32.6
(10.5)
12.1
7.2
0.3
8.3
Operating margin (%)
7.6
6.6
6.9
7.7
8.8
Net profit margin (%)
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.2
6.7
Return on average assets (%)
7.7
8.4
7.7
6.3
8.3
Return on average equity (%)
14.3
16.2
14.4
11.4
14.5
Net debt to equity (%)
46.8
32.3
32.2
37.5
27.1
DPS
2.33
3.40
3.33
2.73
3.62
6.1
11.2
8.2
12.1
12.5
Bv per share growth (%)
Recurrent cash flow per share
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
5
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
7 November 2014
SWOT Analysis
 As the company is PTT’s flagship petrochemical
business, any deals in the future could be given to it
 Changes in the
landscape of the
oil and gas
industry could
have huge
implications on
the company’s
earnings
 Growth
potential will be
in the region
 The company is in a commodity-based business,
which can imply highly volatile earnings
P/E (x) vs EPS growth
P/BV (x) vs ROAE
69%
1
14%
12
53%
1
11%
10
38%
1
9%
8
22%
1
7%
-9%
0
5%
2
-24%
0
2%
0
-40%
0
0%
6
7%
P/E (x) (lhs)
EPS growth (rhs)
Source: Company data, RHB
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
4
P/B (x) (lhs)
Jan-15
16%
14
Jan-14
18%
1
Jan-13
2
84%
Jan-12
100%
16
Jan-11
18
Return on average equity (rhs)
Source: Company data, RHB
Company Profile
PTT Global Chemical has a total olefins and aromatics production capacity of 8.45m tonnes per annum, with 280,000 barrels per day
of petroleum production capacity. It was listed on the stock exchange of Thailand on Oct 2011, as a result of the amalgamation of PTT
Chemical and PTT Aromatics and Refining.
See important disclosures at the end of this report
6
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
7 November 2014
Recommendation Chart
Price Close
70.7
83.1
83.4
89.8
82.1
82.1
68.2
80.0
68.5
Recommendations & Target Price
na
85.0
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
55.0
Buy
50.0
Oct-11
Neutral
Aug-12
Sell
Trading Buy
May-13
Take Profit
Not Rated
Feb-14
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
Date
Recommendation
2014-10-22
Buy
Target Price Price
70.7
59.0
2014-04-23
Buy
83.1
70.5
2014-02-26
Buy
83.4
73.5
2014-02-19
Buy
83.4
72.5
2013-10-22
Buy
89.8
77.5
2013-07-03
Buy
82.1
68.5
2013-05-20
Neutral
82.1
76.0
2013-05-20
Sell
60.2
76.0
2013-04-10
Neutral
82.1
68.0
2012-11-16
Buy
68.5
60.0
Source : RHB, Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
7
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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Fax : +(65) 6532 6211
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy:Malaysia
Share price
may exceed 15% over theRHB
nextOSK
3 months,
however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Research Office
Securities Hong Kong Ltd. (formerly known
DMG & Partners
Neutral: Share
mayInstitute
fall within
months
as 12
OSK
Securities
Securities Pte. Ltd.
RHB price
Research
Sdn the
Bhdrange of +/- 10% over the next
Take Profit:
Target
price One,
has RHB
beenCentre
attained. Look to accumulate at lower
Honglevels
Kong Ltd.)
Level
11, Tower
10 Collyer Quay
Sell: Share price may
more than 10% over the next 12 months
Jalanfall
TunbyRazak
12th Floor
#09-08 Ocean Financial Centre
Lumpur
World-Wide House
Singapore 049315
Not Rated: Stock isKuala
not within
regular research coverage
DISCLAIMERS
Phnom
Penh
This research is issuedJakarta
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general distribution only. It does not have any regard
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Ltd. into any
RHBtransaction
OSK Indochina
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investments
consult
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before
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or Co.
entering
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to any
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or
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known as OSK Indochina Securities Limited)
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9
Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2014
Excellent
ADVANC
AOT
ASIMAR
BAFS
BANPU
BAY
BBL
BCP
BECL
BKI
BROOK
BTS
CIMB
CK
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CPN
CSL
DRT
DTAC
EASTW
EGCO
ERW
GRAMMY
HANA
HEMRAJ
ICC
INTUCH
IRPC
IVL
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KTB
LPN
MCOT
MINT
NKI
NOBLE
PAP
PG
PHOL
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PS
PSL
PTT
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QH
RATCH
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RS
S&J
SAMART
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SIM
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SPALI
SPI
SSI
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THCOM
THRE
TIP
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TKT
TMB
TNITY
TOP
TRC
TRUE
TTW
TVO
UV
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WACOAL
Very Good
2S
ACAP
AF
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AKP
AMANAH
AMARIN
AMATA
AP
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ASK
ASP
AYUD
BEC
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ESSO
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UBIS
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TUF
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UMS
UP
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UT
VIBHA
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VNT
YUASA
*** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25,2012
Good
A
AAV
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AFC
AGE
AH
AI
AJ
AKR
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AS
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PL
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ROJNA
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SCBLIF
SCP
SENA
SF
SGP
SIMAT
SLC
SMIT
SMK
SOLAR
SPC
SPG
SRICHA
SSC
STA
SUPER
SVOA
SWC
SYNEX
WIN
WORK
*** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.
Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)
IOD (IOD Disclaimer)
การเปิดเผลผลการสารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบริษัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการกากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี้เป็นการ
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ทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลักทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผลู้ งทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถึงได้ ดังนั้นผลสารวจ
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อนึ่ง ผลการสารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการสารวจ ณ วันที่ปรากฎในรายงานการกากับดูและกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการสารวจจึงอาจ
เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทัง้ นี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี โอเอส เค จากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการสารวจดังกล่าวแต่อย่างใด