Et utfordrende marked Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.) @ThinaSaltvedt Oljeprisen – lavere lenger… Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2014 108 110 103 77 100 2015E 55 64 50 47 54 2016E 50 53 56 59 55 2017E 60 63 67 70 65 2• Et tilbakeblikk – From bad to worse… Before OPEC meeting Nov 2014 First Iran deadline 2015 At the bottom Jan 2015 September 2015 Source: Bloomberg 3• Drukner i Olje USAs skiferproduksjon eksploderte i 2008 5• Skiferproduksjonen er mer resistent mot lavere priser enn antatt 6 000 Major US shale plays Total Oil production kb/d 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 okt08 jul09 apr10 jan11 okt11 Bakken Eagle Ford jul12 Permian apr13 jan14 okt14 jul15 Niobrara 6• Source: EIA OPEC – Oversvømmer markedet med billig olje 32 OPEC Supply Call-on-OPEC 2015 Quota 31,5 31 30,5 30 OPEC Quota 29,5 29 CallonOPEC 28,5 28 Sep Aug Jul Jun Mai Apr Mar Feb Jan Des Nov Okt Sep Aug Jul Jun Mai Apr Mar Feb 27,5 7• Source: IEA and Nordea Markets Iran vil bli et viktig bidrag i 2016 US/EU sanctions on oil industry 3700 3300 Sanctions on oil insurance and transport US sanctions on Iranian 3100 banks Framework 2900 Accord agreed Deadline 2700 Joint Plan of Action 8• sep.15 mai.15 jan.15 sep.14 mai.14 jan.14 sep.13 mai.13 jan.13 sep.12 mai.12 jan.12 sep.11 mai.11 2500 jan.11 Thousand barrels per day 3500 Sanction removed + 700k b/d Tilbudsoverskuddet vil vare godt inn i 2017 98,0 96,0 Supply Demand USD per barrel 94,0 92,0 90,0 88,0 86,0 84,0 82,0 9• Hva skjer hvis Midtøsten fortsetter å investere mens vi kutter? 800000 E&P Expenditure in MUSD 700000 Europe Europe America N Middle East 600000 500000 400000 300000 North America 200000 100000 0 Middle East Source: Rystad Energy and Nordea Markets 10 • Fra kartell til markedsandel – en ny prisæra Cartel price USD 110/barrel 11 • Hvor avhengige er vi av olje? Et kraftig fall i oljeprisen er bra for verdensøkonomien 13 • Største nedside risiko - en gjelds-/eiendomsboble som sprekker i Kina 14 Transport er den siste bastionen - men overgangen til andre energiformer kan gå fort! 120 Million barrels per day 100 Power generation 6.5% Industry 5.5% Buildings 9% 80 Other 13% Petrochemicals 12% 60 40 Transport 54% 20 0 1990 2013 2020 2025 15 • Source: IEA 2030 Klima og forurensingsproblemer krever endring – Kina møter store helseproblemer og fallende levealder 16 • Risiko for «Stranded assets» Klima på agendaen i 2015! 17 • Source: DNV GL and Nordea Markets Ekstraordinære endringer underveis i energisektoren : Saudi Arabia, verdens største råoljeeksportør, kan fase ut fossilenergi innen midten av dette århundre sier Oljeminister, Ali al-Naimi Here comes the sun… 18 • Teknologiskiftet går fortere enn vi klarer å forestille oss… Norge ledende på el-bil Bilbatteriteknologi: Kostandene allerede nede på 2020 nivå Kilde: Norsk Elbilforening (2014) og Nykvist og Nilsson, 2015 19 • Ny batteriteknologi kan endre energimarkedene radikalt Teslas Power Wall får konkurranse fra tyske Daimler og danske Lithium Balance 20 Utfordringer i kø fremover Vi er neppe ferdig med nedturen… 22 15.09.2015 Hvilke felt er mest utsatt med dagens oljepris på USD 50/fatet? Wisting Johan Castberg Gotha/Alta Goliat Kristin Åsgård Njord Ormen Lange Snorre Late Life Liten risiko under USD 50/f Edvard Grieg Johan Sverdrup Ekofisk King Lear Middels risiko litt over USD 50/f Høy risiko over USD +50/f 23 • 24 • Aasgard Kvitebjorn Heidrun Tor Edvard Grieg Skarv Njord Valhall Hod Visund Kristin Grane Ekofisk West Linnorm Ormen Lange Gjoa Ekofisk West Frigg Gamma/Delta King Lear Wisting Alta/Gohta Snorre Johan Castberg Johan Sverdrup EP Expenditure in MUSD Investeringer – Johan Sverdrup er uten sammenligning det viktigste 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Source: Rystad Energy and Nordea Markets Antall ansatte i offshore, leverandør, operatør indirekte sysselsatte 25 • Kilde: IRIS 2014 Østfold: Flest i leverandør industrien og indirekte sysselsatte Kilde: IRIS 2014 26 • Oljeprisfallet rammer fastlandet….. 27 15.09.2015 Oljenedturen har så langt preget Vestlandet… 28 9.75 9.55 9.35 9.15 8.95 8.75 8.55 8.35 8.15 7.95 7.75 09Sep13 NOK expected to regain some strength against EUR and… 28Jun14 EURNOK 16Apr15 Forward 02Feb16 Nordea 20Nov16 08Sep17 Consensus …but weaken further against USD, when FED starts to hike 29 • … against SEK within the next six months 1.035 1.015 0.995 0.975 0.955 0.935 0.915 0.895 0.875 16Sep13 05Jul14 SEKNOK 23Apr15 Forward 09Feb16 Nordea 27Nov16 Consensus 30 • 15Sep17 Inflasjonen vil forbli lav … 31 15.09.2015 …og Norges Bank kutter igjen Norges Banks styringsrente 32 15.09.2015 Boligprisveksten - vil dra med seg forbruk og boligbygging Bankene kutter rentene 33 Thina Margrethe Saltvedt Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.) Economic Research Nordea Markets Twitter: @ThinaSaltvedt Phone: +47 22 48 79 93 Mobile: +47 90 63 40 75 Thina.margrethe.saltvedt@nordea.com Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Danmark A/S. The information provided herein is intended for background information only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. This notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks related to it, and it should not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for the judgement of the recipient. 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