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The Overview 31 March 2015
U.S. Economic Views – Autopsy and Prognosis of the US Economic
Expansion: FromCrisis to Stability Warts, Risks, and the Fed's Response
(Dana M Peterson 27 March 2015)

The journey from the Great Financial Crisis back to stability continues to be a long and winding road for the United
States economy, replete with shocks, switchbacks, and episodes of explosive growth and retracement. In our
recently published update to the US outlook in the March 25 Global Economic Outlook and Strategy, we slightly
lowered our forecasts for growth this year. Nonetheless, we continue to expect the US expansion to persist over the
medium term.

We look for real GDP to expand in the 2½ to 3 percent range over the mediumterm. With solid employment and
income gains continuing (following the 1.3 million gain in payrolls since November), and gasoline prices remaining
low for a prolonged period (40 percent lower than last summer), we expect healthy consumption growth to resume
in coming quarters. The boost from lower energy prices is likely to dissipate in 2016, but GDP should still grow at
an above-potential pace. The drag induced by the strong dollar remains a notable downside risk to our outlook.

Headline inflation in 2015 is likely to decline temporarily toward zero, and core inflation is projected to remain well
below the Fed’s 2 percent target until 2017. While lower energy prices have dampened headline inflation, the
appreciating US dollar and deflation abroad will help cap core inflation. Domestic wage pressures remain muted by
substantial economic slack and firms’ reluctance to raise the pace of hiring, which has historically preceded wage
hikes.

The Fed has signaled clearly that monetary policy is to be determined by a judgmental feedback rule that assesses
the impact of new economic data on their inflation forecast. Chair Yellen has affirmed that interest rate
normalization will begin once incoming data raises the Fed's confidence in their inflation forecast showing that
inflation will rise to the 2 percent target in the "medium term." We believe that the uncertainty about the outlook for
inflation and GDP growth will not support such increased confidence until year end. Monetary policy normalization
after lift-off is expected to be shallow and protracted.
Link to full article :
https://ir.citi.com/uBR2q9nVFJ9gG%2FMmFzRpAKEYgK87n41l5QPMlSD099wWYqnIVgkZyA%3D%3D
Top Warrants & Stopped Out Warrants
Warrant Code
CTXKOC
BHPLOD
Previous day’s top warrants by value and volume
Value
Citi
Warrant Code
Volume
$220,069 Citi Sells
BHPLOD
168,448
$214,267 Citi Buys
XJOWOE
165,000
Citi
Citi Buys
Citi Sells
XJOKOH
XJOQOP
RHCKOE
$210,455
$185,164
$158,110
Citi Sells
Citi Buys
Citi Sells
STOKOM
BHPWOH
XJOKOH
123,000
108,000
80,900
Citi Buys
Citi Sells
Citi Sells
Stopped Out Warrants
Warrant Code
Strike
Stop Loss
Remaining Value
Stop Loss Date
Final Listing Date
QBEKOE
CTXKOC
NABKOG
SEKKOA
RIOKON
MQGKOA
WSAKOC
BKNKOB
MINKOH
CTXKOE
WPLKOB
CBAKOD
11.5400
31.0269
36.5917
15.1402
52.1722
69.1479
3.3110
1.6060
5.9090
32.4639
31.1968
89.1232
12.63
33.99
38.34
16.59
55.90
75.92
3.63
1.85
6.78
35.58
34.24
93.40
$1.07
$2.97
$1.735
$1.48
$3.46
$6.75
$0.315
$0.225
$1.005
$2.48
$3.03
$4.26
30/03/2015
30/03/2015
30/03/2015
30/03/2015
30/03/2015
30/03/2015
30/03/2015
30/03/2015
30/03/2015
30/03/2015
30/03/2015
30/03/2015
01/04/2015
01/04/2015
01/04/2015
01/04/2015
01/04/2015
01/04/2015
01/04/2015
01/04/2015
01/04/2015
01/04/2015
01/04/2015
01/04/2015
Headlines & Highlights



Key data: Spain CPI YoY (Mar P) (-0.7%, -0.9% exp, -1.1% prev). Italy Consumer Confidence Index (Mar) (110.9,
110.9 exp, 107.7 prev). UK Mortgage Approvals (Feb) (61.8K, 61.5K exp, 60.7K prev). Eurozone Business Climate
Indicator (Mar) (0.23, 0.18 exp, 0.09 prev). Germany CPI MoM (Mar P) (0.005, 0.004 exp, 0.009 prev). US
Personal Spending (Feb) (0.001, 0.002 exp, -0.002 prev). US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (Mar) (-17.4, -8.8 exp, 11.2 prev). Canada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence (Mar 27) (55.6, 55 prev). UK Net Consumer Credit (Feb) (0.7B,
0.9B exp, 0.8B prev).
US Consumer spending stalls as savings jump - Consumer spending barely rose in February as frigid
temperatures kept households away from malls and automobile dealerships, adding to signs the U.S. economy
slowed at the start of 2015. The 0.1% gain in purchases followed a 0.2% drop in January. The saving rate jumped
in February to 5.8 percent, the highest since December 2012 and up from 4.4 percent just three months earlier,
government data showed.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras sought to rally a consensus in parliament for his effort to secure bailout
funds after his proposals to bolster the nation’s finances failed to satisfy his European creditors. “I want to address
the political parties of the opposition: Will you back the national negotiating strategy to put an end to austerity?”
Tsipras asked lawmakers in Athens.
Overnight
Equities | S&P 2088 (1.3%) | Stoxx600 400 (1.1%) | FTSE 6891 (0.5%)
 U.S stocks have advanced sharply, with the S&P 500 up +1.3% in afternoon trade. These gains were largely driven
by a bout of deal activity and dovish commentary from China’s central bank.
 Energy stocks were the largest outperformer on the index, gaining +2.1%. A pick up in February of previously
owned house purchases saw S&P 500 homebuilder stocks add +1.8%.
 Catamaran Corp surged +24% after UnitedHealth Group has agreed to purchase the company while Horizon
Pharma rose 15% after announcing that they will acquire Hyperion Therapeutics.
 Also in Europe, stocks had a solid run after a round of positive economic data was released which outweighed the
concerns over Greece reaching a reform agreement.
 The Stoxx 600 closed higher, up +1.1% as data showed that economic confidence in the Eurozone jumped to its
highest level since 2011.
 Germany’s DAX 30 surged +1.83%, pushing the index back over the 12,000 point level. The index received a
boost following the release of inflation data showing that consumer prices grew +0.3% YoY in March, up from
+0.1% in February.
 London’s FTSE 100 index rose +0.5% as mining stocks led the gains on hopes that there will be an increase in
infrastructure spending in China.
 Greece’s Athex Composite index traded positively despite the reform discussions in Brussels on Monday, closing
up +0.53%.
Foreign exchange | AUDUSD 0.7643 (-1.02%) | DXY 98.0550 (0.57%) | EURUSD 1.0813 (-0.55%)





Resumed strength from the USD was the key theme overnight. The dollar rebounded following comments late
Friday from Fed Chair Janet Yellen which underscored the view that the US central bank is likely to start raising
rates gradually later this year. The dollar is also supported by positive pending home sales data released in the
US.
The Euro was weighed down by headlines claiming that Greece’s proposals to boost its finances are insufficient.
The EUR remained on the back foot for most of the night, despite regional data that was close to expectation and
also showed German annual CPI inflation back in positive territory. The EURUSD is currently trading at 1.0813.
Sterling fell against the dollar on Monday, weighed down on the first official day of a national election campaign
that looks set to give no party an outright majority. GBPUSD trades 0.42% lower, at 1.4796 this morning.
The Aussie is the standout worst performer overnight. The AUD slump overnight was driven by a fall of 0.85% in
iron ore prices and likely also assisted by a journalist’s report that an April RBA rate cut now looks more likely. The
market now prices almost a 70% chance of an RBA cut next week. The AUDUSD now trades at 0.7643, down
1.02% overnight. The kiwi also saw a bumpy path lower overnight, trading at 0.7496 this morning with the strength
in the greenback.
The Russian rouble rose on Monday as global market optimism over monetary stimulus in China and the euro
zone lifted risk appetite for emerging market assets and oil prices stayed steadier. South Africa’s rand extended
losses against the dollar on Monday, hitting a new one-week low, as a basket of currencies suffered at the hand of
a stronger greenback. Most emerging Asian currencies slid on Monday amid expectations that the US Fed will start
raising interest rates later this year, even though its chief reiterated that it may not rush to tighten monetary policy.
Commodities | Gold 1186 (-1.25%) | Oil (WTI) 48.55 (-0.65%) | Copper 278.25 (0.54%)




Gold closed down for a second straight session, as the USD climbed and investors speculated that the Fed may
start raising rates this year.
Oil prices fell as Iran and six world powers negotiated a deal for Tehran’s nuclear program that could end Western
sanctions, and allow the OPEC member to ship more crude into an already flooded market.
Copper rebounded on speculation that economic stimulus will expand in China, following governor of the PBOC
Zhou Xiaochuan’s comments that China’s economic growth rate has fallen “a bit” too much, and policy makers
have room to respond.
According to Bloomberg, Teck Resources Ltd. and Antofagasta Plc are exploring a merger that would create one
of the world’s largest copper producers.
Trading Calendar
ECONOMICS
- Aus Feb HIA New Home Sales,
- Aus Feb Private Sector Credit,
- US Mar Dallas Fed Manf. Activity,
- Germany Mar Unemployment Rate,
- NZ Mar ANZ Business Confidence,
- NZ Feb Building Permits
Overnight Summary
(Source: Reuters)
Last
5,846
5,900
Change
-74
49
%
Change
-1.25%
0.84%
Past
Month
-1.39%
-0.19%
Major World Indices
Dow
S&P500
Nasdaq
-- Europe -UK
Last
17,976
2,086
4,947
Change
264
25
56
%
Change
1.49%
1.23%
1.15%
Past
Month
-0.86%
-0.86%
-0.32%
6,891
36
0.53%
-0.80%
Germany
12,086
218
1.83%
6.00%
Australian Indices
ASX 200
SPI
-- Asia / Pacific --
Nikkei
Hong Kong
Korea
19,411
24,855
2,030
126
369
10
0.65%
1.51%
0.51%
3.26%
0.13%
2.23%
Currencies
$A / $US
$A / Stg
$A / Euro
Last
0.7641
0.51641
0.706
Change
-0.0187
-0.01067
-0.0126
%
Change
-2.39%
-2.02%
-1.75%
Past
Month
-1.61%
2.20%
1.75%
98.026
0.74799
0.77%
2.88%
DXY (USD Basket)
A$ TWI
63.8
-0.7
-1.09%
-0.47%
120.12
1.03
0.86%
-0.03%
Last
Change
%
Change
Past
Month
1,185.59
47.73
-13.07
-1.14
-1.09%
-2.33%
-2.27
-4.08
$US / Yen
Metals (LME) / Energy
Gold - spot
Oil - WTI
Metals (LME-3mth official, $USc / lb)
Aluminium
81.53
0.70
0.87%
-0.96%
Copper
275.88
1.22
0.45%
3.17%
Nickel
584.23
-18.37
-3.05%
-8.62%
57.20
-0.90
-1.55%
-19.49%
Thml Coal (Newcastle)
SHFE Steel Rebar
2421.00
-4.00
-0.16%
-2.65%
Iron Ore 3M Future usd
Iron Ore
51.29
52.69
-0.50
-0.45
-0.97%
-0.85%
-17.34%
-15.78%
Dual Listed Co's
BHP Billiton plc
Rio plc
NWS A
BHP ADR
Last
1,512
2,817
16.22
47.18
%
Change
0.30%
0.25%
0.37%
0.21%
A$ equiv
29.28
54.54
21.23
30.87
Spread
2.80%
2.40%
-1.71%
2.61%
Futures
2.25
0.25
0.05
Next
2.00
0.13
-0.00
Next + 1
1.87
0.20
0.01
Cash Rates
Australia
US
Euro
Contacts
Elizabeth Tian
02 8225 6154
elizabeth.tian@citi.com
Carsten Jensen
02 8225 6184
carsten.jensen@citi.com
web: www.citifirst.com.au
ph: 1300 30 70 70
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