1. No category

EARNINGS RESULTS
สมบูรณ์ แอ๊ดวานซ์
เทคโนโลยี
10 พฤศจิกายน 2014
SAT TB / SAT.BK
Sector: Automotive Neutral
คาแนะนาพื้นฐาน: ซื้อ
เป้าหมายพื้นฐาน: 19.60 บาท
ราคา (07/11/57): 18.30 บาท
ผลกาไรไตรมาส 3/57 ตามคาด
Price chart
ผลกาไรไตรมาส 3/57 ตามคาด
SAT ประกาศผลกาไรสุทธิไตรมาส 3/57 ที่ 143 ล้านบาท ลดลง 16%
YoY แต่เ พิ่มขึ้ น 11% QoQ ตรงตามคาดการณ์ของเรา แต่ต่ากว่ า
ประมาณการของ Bloomberg อยู่ 4% กาไร 9 เดือนแรกปี 2557 ลดลง
20% YoY เป็น 439 ล้านบาท ซึ่งคิดเป็นสัดส่วน 70% ของประมาณการ
ของเราที่ 614 ล้านบาท
ประเด็นหลักจากผลประกอบการ
ยอดขายหดตัว 7% YoY (แต่เพิ่มขึ้น 6% QoQ) เป็น 2 พันล้านบาท
เนื่ อ งจากอุ ป สงค์ ใ นหมู่ ผู้ผ ลิ ต ชิ้ น ส่ ว นรถยนต์ ร ายหลั ก ค่ อ นข้ า งซบเซา
หลังโครงการคืนภาษีรถยนต์คันแรกสิ้นสุดลงเมื่อเดือนมิ.ย. 2556
อัตรากาไรขั้นต้นของ SAT อยู่ที่ 15.8% ลดลงจาก 17.4% ในไตรมาส
ก่อ นหน้า (จากการปรับ ลดราคาเพื่ อกระตุ้น ยอดขาย) อัต รากาไรสุ ท ธิ
ไตรมาส 3/57 อยู่ที่ 7.1% เพิ่มขึ้นเล็กน้อยจาก 6.8% ในไตรมาส 2/57
หนุ น จากส่ ว นแบ่ ง ก าไรจากบริ ษั ท ลู ก ที่ เ พิ่ ม มากขึ้ น และการบริ ห าร
ค่าใช้จ่ายในการดาเนินงานที่ดี แต่ลดลงจาก 7.9% ในไตรมาส 3/56
จากยอดขายที่ลดลง YoY
แนวโน้ม
เราคาดว่ ากาไรไตรมาส 4/57 จะเพิ่ มขึ้น เล็ กน้ อย QoQ
YoY
แต่ จะทรงตั ว
สิ่งที่เปลี่ยนแปลงไป
เรายั งคงประมาณการกาไรไว้ เท่ าเดิม ที่ 614 ล้ านบาทในปี 2557 และ
870 ล้านบาทในปี 2558
คาแนะนา
อุตสาหกรรมยานยนต์มีแนวโน้มค่อยๆฟื้นตัว ดังนั้น เราจึงมองว่าผลการ
ด าเนิ น งานของ SAT คาดจะดี ขึ้ น QoQ และปี ห น้ า และเนื่ อ งด้ ว ย
แนวโน้มที่ดูดีขึ้ นทั้งในไตรมาส 4/57 นอกจากนี้ และมีแนวโน้มที่ SAT
จะสามารถทากาไรดีขึ้นกว่าประมาณการเราในปี 2558 ซึ่งจะเป็น อัพไซด์
ต่อราคาหุ้นได้อีก เรายังคงคาแนะนา ซื้อ
Price
Bt
22.5
Rel. to SET
Rel. Idx
150
17.5
100
12.5
50
7.5
2.5
0
11/13 01/14 03/14 05/14 07/14 08/14 10/14
Share price perf. (%)
Relative to SET
Absolute
1M
(3.1)
(0.5)
3M
(1.5)
2.2
12M
9.6
20.4
Key statistics
Market cap
12-mth price range
12-mth avg daily volume
# of shares (m)
Est. free float (%)
Foreign limit (%)
Consensus
rating
%
100
80
60
40
20
0
Bt7.8bn
Bt13.2/Bt19.6
Bt21m
425
46.8
49.0
44
6
USD0.6m
BLS Target price BLS earnings
vs. Consensus
vs. Consensus
Bt
19.8
50
USD0.2bn
Buy
Hold
Sell
19.7
19.6
19.5
BLS
Cons.
BLS Cons.
1
Btm
1000
800
600
400
200
0
BLS
Cons.
14E 15E
Financial summary
FY Ended 31 Dec
Revenues (Btm)
Net profit (Btm)
EPS (Bt)
EPS grow th (%)
Core profit (Btm)
Core EPS (Bt)
Core EPS grow th (%)
PER (x)
PBV (x)
Dividend (Bt)
Dividend yield (%)
ROE (%)
2013
8,973
966
2.26
-4.2%
691
1.62
-19.4%
8.1
1.6
0.5
2.5
21.4
2014E
2015E
2016E
7,986
8,785
9,312
614
870
980
1.44
2.04
2.30
-36.5% +41.8% +12.6%
458
640
739
1.07
1.50
1.73
-33.7% +39.6% +15.4%
12.7
9.0
8.0
1.5
1.3
1.2
0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
2.7
8.2
12.1
15.4
15.9
CG rating
สุวัฒน์ บารุงชาติอุดม
นักวิเคราะห์การลงทุนปัจจัยพื้นฐานด้านหลักทรัพย์
suwat@bualuang.co.th
+66 2 618 1341
See disclaimer at the end of report
SAT: Financial Tables – Year
PROFIT & LOSS (Btm )
Revenue
Cost of sales and services
Gross profit
SG&A
EBIT
Interest expense
Other income/exp.
EBT
Corporate tax
After-tax net profit (loss)
Minority interest
Equity earnings from affiliates
Extra items
Net profit (loss)
Reported EPS
Fully diluted EPS
Core net profit
Core EPS
EBITDA
KEY RATIOS
Revenue grow th (%)
Gross margin (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
Operating margin (%)
Net margin (%)
Core profit margin (%)
ROA (%)
ROCE (%)
Asset turnover (x)
Current ratio (x)
Gearing ratio (x)
Interest coverage (x)
BALANCE SHEET (Btm )
Cash & Equivalent
Accounts receivable
Inventory
PP&E-net
Other assets
Total assets
Accounts payable
ST debts & current portion
Long-term debt
Other liabilities
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Share premium
Retained earnings
Shareholders equity
Minority interests
Total Liab.&Shareholders' equity
CASH FLOW (Btm )
Net income
Depreciation and amortization
Change in w orking capital
FX, non-cash adjustment & others
Cash flow s from operating activities
Capex (Invest)/Divest
Others
Cash flow s from investing activities
Debt financing (repayment)
Equity financing
Dividend payment
Others
Cash flow s from financing activities
Net change in cash
Free cash flow (Btm )
FCF per share (Bt)
Industry data
GDP grow th (%)
Auto productions ('000 unit)
New car sales ('000 unit)
Auto export ('000 unit)
Auto production grow th (%)
New car sale grow th (%)
2012
9,410
(7,926)
1,484
(641)
843
(160)
191
874
(70)
804
0
0
0
804
2.36
2.36
683
2.01
1,766
2013
8,973
(7,404)
1,569
(721)
848
(157)
239
930
(85)
845
0
0
121
966
2.26
2.26
691
1.62
1,739
2014E
7,986
(6,629)
1,358
(750)
608
(149)
151
609
(56)
554
0
60
0
614
1.44
1.44
458
1.26
1,700
2015E
8,785
(7,230)
1,555
(765)
790
(150)
210
850
(78)
772
0
98
0
870
2.04
2.04
640
1.35
1,766
2016E
9,312
(7,613)
1,699
(803)
896
(158)
210
949
(87)
862
0
118
0
980
2.30
2.30
739
1.73
1,854
46.5
15.8
18.8
9.3
8.5
7.3
8.5
22.2
1.0
2.0
1.3
5.3
(4.6)
17.5
19.4
10.4
10.8
7.7
9.7
21.2
0.9
1.7
1.0
5.4
(11.0)
17.0
21.3
7.6
7.7
5.7
5.5
18.5
0.7
1.7
1.1
4.1
10.0
17.7
20.1
9.7
9.9
7.3
7.0
17.6
0.7
1.8
1.3
5.3
6.0
18.3
19.9
10.2
10.5
7.9
7.1
16.1
0.7
1.9
1.2
5.7
815
1,576
611
5,825
594
9,421
1,455
25
2,721
1,070
5,272
341
711
3,097
4,149
0
9,421
1,075
1,220
580
6,392
656
9,923
1,133
577
2,701
639
5,050
432
713
3,728
4,873
0
9,923
1,150
1,366
650
7,159
788
11,114
1,269
646
3,025
894
5,834
432
625
4,223
5,280
0
11,114
1,250
2,362
650
9,000
313
12,447
2,131
300
4,136
1,161
7,728
432
625
4,953
6,010
1
13,576
1,200
2,550
750
9,100
287
13,887
2,131
250
4,000
1,161
7,542
427
625
5,293
6,345
0
13,887
816
720
243
0
1,779
(1,118)
0
(1,118)
(188)
0
(136)
0
(324)
337
966
787
(318)
0
1,855
(1,383)
72
(1,312)
(35)
0
(249)
72
(283)
260
614
600
(271)
0
943
(650)
0
(650)
39
0
(192)
0
(153)
140
870
601
(230)
0
1,241
(800)
0
(800)
503
0
(213)
0
290
731
980
602
(195)
1
1,388
(800)
0
(800)
503
0
(640)
0
(136)
452
661
1.94
471
1.10
293
0.69
441
1.03
588
1.38
1.8
2012
5.5
2,300.0
1,250.0
1,050.0
57.8
57.0
2013
3.0
2,460.0
1,330.0
1,130.0
7.0
6.4
2014E
3.0
2,400.0
1,100.0
1,300.0
(2.4)
(17.3)
2015E
3.3
2,500.0
1,200.0
1,300.0
4.2
9.1
2016E
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
Revenue growth and asset turnover
x
Revenue growth (%) (LHS)
Asset turnover (x) (RHS)
%
60
4
45
3
30
2
15
1
0
-15
0
10
11
12
13
14E 15E 16E
A/C receivable & A/C payable days
days
AR / Sales (days)
AP / Cost of Goods (days)
120
90
60
30
0
10
11
12
13
14E
15E
16E
Profit margins
Gross margin (%)
%
EBIT margin (%)
25
20
15
10
5
0
10
11
12
13
14E
15E
16E
Capital expenditure
Capex (Bt,bn)
Bt,bn
2.5
%
Capex / Net PPE (%)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
10
11
12
13
14E 15E 16E
Debt serviceability
(ST debt + Interest) / EBITDA
(Debt + Interest) / EBITDA
x
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
10
11
12
13
14E
15E
16E
Dividend payout
Bt/Shr
Dividend (Bt)
%
Payout ratio (%)
1.50
1.5
0.90
0.9
0.45 0.42 0.45 0.45 0.50
0.6
0.3
0.0
10
11
12
13
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
14E 15E 16E
สมบูรณ์ แอ๊ดวานซ์เทคโนโลยี - 2
SAT : Financial Tables – Quarter
QUARTERLY PROFIT & LOSS (Btm )
Revenue
Cost of sales and services
Gross profit
SG&A
EBIT
Interest expense
Other income/exp.
EBT
Corporate tax
After-tax net profit (loss)
Minority interest
Equity earnings from affiliates
Extra items
Net profit (loss)
Reported EPS
Fully diluted EPS
Core net profit
Core EPS
EBITDA
3Q13
2,159
(1,783)
375
(189)
186
(41)
35
181
(15)
166
0
4
0
170
0.57
0.57
139
0.07
383
4Q13
2,008
(1,622)
386
(156)
230
(40)
116
306
(31)
274
0
(25)
166
415
0.97
0.97
230
0.54
473
1Q14
2,106
(1,730)
376
(187)
189
(41)
22
170
(21)
149
0
20
0
168
0.40
0.39
148
1.19
392
2Q14
1,881
(1,554)
327
(207)
120
(35)
45
130
(11)
119
0
9
0
128
0.30
0.30
85
0.20
298
3Q14
2,003
(1,688)
316
(171)
144
(36)
38
146
(16)
131
0
12
0
143
0.96
0.96
84
3.19
358
Revenue trend
%
Revenue (Bt,bn) (LHS)
Revenue growth (% YoY)
Bt,bn
3.0
20
2.5
2.0
0
1.5
1.0
(20)
0.5
0.0
(40)
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
Revenue trend (accumulated)
Accum. Revenue (Bt,bn)
Bt,bn
%
% of FY Revenue
10
100
8
6
4
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
75
78
54
50
28
26
2
0
KEY RATIOS
Gross margin (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
Operating margin (%)
Net margin (%)
Core profit margin (%)
BV (Bt)
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Current ratio (x)
Gearing ratio (x)
Interest coverage (x)
QUARTERLY BALANCE SHEET (Btm )
Cash & Equivalent
Accounts receivable
Inventory
PP&E-net
Other assets
Total assets
Accounts payable
ST debts & current portion
Long-term debt
Other liabilities
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Share premium
Retained earnings
Shareholders equity
Minority interests
Total Liab.&Shareholders' equity
Industry data
Auto production (unit)
New car sale (unit)
Auto export (unit)
Auto production grow th QoQ (%)
New car sale grow th QoQ(%)
Auto export grow th QoQ (%)
1Q13
17.4
17.7
8.4
7.9
6.4
11.8
13.4
6.5
1.9
1.1
4.6
19.2
23.5
15.2
20.7
11.5
11.4
34.1
16.7
1.3
1.0
5.8
17.9
18.6
8.0
8.0
7.0
11.8
13.4
6.7
1.7
1.0
4.6
17.4
15.8
5.8
6.8
4.5
11.6
10.3
5.2
1.7
1.0
3.4
15.8
17.9
6.4
7.1
4.2
11.8
11.4
5.8
1.7
1.0
4.0
1,010
1,381
586
6,778
678
10,433
1,115
117
571
3,563
5,366
425
713
3,930
5,068
0
10,433
1,075
1,220
580
6,392
656
9,923
1,133
577
2,701
639
5,050
432
713
3,728
4,873
0
9,923
1,057
1,320
607
6,345
748
10,078
1,191
588
2,578
683
5,039
425
716
3,897
5,038
0
10,078
1,027
1,211
615
6,345
637
9,835
1,062
595
2,581
644
4,882
425
716
3,811
4,953
0
9,835
1,017
1,260
603
6,345
602
9,827
1,105
616
2,433
669
4,823
425
716
3,863
5,004
0
9,827
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
589,254 526,828 517,492 435,383 456,435
293,492 290,800 229,153 216,740 207,205
304,028 280,831 275,220 268,538 278,905
(5)
(11)
(2)
(16)
5
(10)
(1)
(21)
(5)
(4)
4
(8)
(2)
(2)
4
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
Net profit trend (accumulated)
Bt,m
% of FY Profit %
Accum. Profit (Bt,m)
1,050
900
750
600
450
300
150
0
120
100
72
57
39
24
90
48
60
27
30
0
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
Gross profit margin
%
FY GPM (%)
Gross margin (%)
25
20
15
10
5
0
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
EBIT margin
FY EBIT margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
%
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
Company profile
Somboon Advance Technology Plc make parts for the automotive and electrical appliance industries.
สมบูรณ์ แอ๊ดวานซ์เทคโนโลยี - 3
Figure 1 :
3Q14 results
FY Ended 31 Dec (Btm)
Income Statement
Revenue
Cost of sales and services
EBITDA
EBIT
Interest expense
Other income/exp.
Equity earnings from affiliates
Extra items
EBT
Corporate tax
Minority interest
Net profit (loss)
Reported EPS
Core net profit
Key ratios
Gross margin (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
Tax rate (%)
Net margin (%)
Current ratio (x)
Gearing ratio (x)
Interest coverage (x)
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalent
Total assets
ST debts & current portion
Long-term debt
Total liabilities
Retained earnings
Shareholders equity
Minority interests
BV (Bt)
3Q14
3Q13 YoY %
2,003
(1,688)
358
144
(36)
38
12
0
146
(16)
0
143
0.96
84
2,159
(1,783)
383
186
(41)
35
4
0
181
(15)
0
170
0.57
139
15.8
17.9
7.2
10.7
7.1
1.7
1.0
4.0
17.4
17.7
8.6
8.4
7.9
1.9
1.1
4.6
1,017
9,827
616
2,433
4,823
3,863
5,004
0
11.8
1,010
10,433
117
571
5,366
3,930
5,068
0
11.8
(7)
(5)
(6)
(22)
0
7
0
0
(19)
3
0
(16)
67
(40)
2Q14 QoQ %
1,881
(1,554)
328
120
(35)
45
9
0
130
(11)
0
128
0.30
85
6
9
9
20
0
(16)
0
0
12
45
0
11
218
(2)
17.4
17.4
6.4
8.3
6.8
1.7
1.0
3.4
1
(6)
0
326
(10)
(2)
(1)
0
(1)
1,027
9,835
595
2,581
4,882
3,811
4,953
0
11.6
9M14
9M13 YoY %
5,991
(4,972)
1,078
454
(112)
105
40
0
446
(47)
0
439
1.38
317
6,965
(5,782)
1,267
619
(118)
123
25
(45)
624
(54)
0
551
1.72
461
17.0
18.0
7.6
10.6
7.3
1.7
1.0
4.0
17.0
18.2
8.9
8.6
7.9
1.9
1.1
5.3
(14)
(14)
(27)
0
(15)
0
0
(29)
(11)
0
(20)
(20)
(31)
 QoQ revenue improvement
 Net margin rose QoQ, due to
better sales
 A higher effective QoQ tax rate
(1)
(0)
4
(6)
(1)
1
1
0
1
Sources: Company data, Bualuang Research estimates
สมบูรณ์ แอ๊ดวานซ์เทคโนโลยี - 4
Sector Comparisons
B lo o m be rg
C o de
P ric e M a rk e t C a p
( lo c a l c urr.)
P E R (x)
E P S G ro wt h ( %)
( US $
e quiv a le nt )
2 0 14 E
2 0 15 E
2 0 14 E
P B V (x)
R O E (%)
2 0 15 E
2 0 14 E
2 0 15 E
2 0 14 E
D iv Y ie ld ( %)
2 0 15 E
2 0 14 E
2 0 15 E
n.a.
Thai Rung Unio n Car
TRU TB
A UD4.9
87
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Ino ue Rubber (Thailand)
IRC TB
IDR16.7
102
8.7
9.5
0.0
-23.4
1.3
1.2
13.4
16.2
4.9
3.6
Thai Steel Cable
TSC TB
IDR15.0
119
13.5
12.7
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
12.0
13.0
n.a.
n.a.
A apico Hitech
A H TB
THB 14.80
146
4.0
3.5
95.7
14.7
0.8
0.7
18.6
18.8
3.0
3.7
P .C.S. M achine Gro up Ho lding
P CSGH TB
THB 9.35
441
15.9
9.9
-50.5
59.9
2.8
2.5
26.8
26.7
4.8
5.3
So mbo o n A dvance Techno lo gy
SA T TB
THB 18.30
237
12.7
9.0
-36.5
41.8
1.5
1.3
12.1
15.4
2.5
2.7
Thai Stanley Electric
STA NLY TB
THB 214.00
500
11.0
14.3
-8.4
-22.7
1.5
1.4
14.4
10.3
2.8
2.3
11.0
9 .8
0 .1
14 .1
1.6
1.4
16 .2
16 .7
3 .6
3 .5
S im ple a v e ra ge
PER band versus SD (next 12 months)
PBV band versus SD (next 12 months)
x
x
+2.0 SD = 2.95x
3.1
20
+2.5 SD = 19.40x
15
+1.5 SD = 15.50x
+1.0 SD = 13.55x
LT-average = 9.66x
-0.5 SD = 7.71x
-1.0 SD = 5.76x
10
2.6
+1.0 SD = 2.31x
2.1
1.6
+0.5 SD = 2.00x
LT-average = 1.68x
-0.5 SD = 1.36x
1.1
-1.0 SD = 1.04x
5
0.6
0
YE04
YE06
YE08
YE10
YE12
0.1
YE04
YE14
PER band and share price
YE06
YE08
YE10
YE12
YE14
PBV band and share price
40
40
35
30
14.0x
30
25
20
12.0x
10.0x
8.0x
10
6.0x
4.0x
0
YE04
YE06
YE08
YE10
YE12
6.0x
5.0x
4.0x
20
15
3.0x
10
2.0x
5
1.0x
0
YE14
YE04
YE06
YE08
YE10
YE12
YE14
Foreign holding
%
SAT
Auto
40
30
27.3
20
10
0
6/14
7/14
8/14
9/14
10/14
11/14
สมบูรณ์ แอ๊ดวานซ์เทคโนโลยี - 5
Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited
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BUALUANG RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12
months.
HOLD: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next 12
months.
SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12
months.
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next
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OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
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สมบูรณ์ แอ๊ดวานซ์เทคโนโลยี - 6